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Élections·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland

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Élections·Élections Mondiales

Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland

Aucune élection avant 2027 72%

Waddani 15%

Justice et Bien-être (UCID) 3.5%

Kulmiye 1.9%

Polymarket
NEW

Aucune élection avant 2027 72%

Waddani 15%

Justice et Bien-être (UCID) 3.5%

Kulmiye 1.9%

Polymarket
NEW
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Aucune élection avant 2027

$3,083 Vol.

72%

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Waddani

$1,549 Vol.

13%

Market icon

Justice et Bien-être (UCID)

$3,057 Vol.

4%

Market icon

Kulmiye

$1,777 Vol.

2%

Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Somaliland's National Electoral Commission postponed parliamentary elections from May 2026 to March 2027 in early February, citing prolonged drought disrupting voter registration and logistics, localized security challenges, and ongoing political disagreements over electoral processes, solidifying trader consensus at 71.5% for no election before 2027. This official delay, framed as essential for credibility amid the self-declared republic's pursuit of international recognition, has suppressed odds for party outcomes. Waddani leads at 13% as the incumbent party following President Abdirahman Irro's 2024 presidential victory over Kulmiye, with UCID and Kulmiye trailing due to diminished momentum despite historical parliamentary strength from 2005. No recent reversals signal potential shifts before year-end.

Somaliland's National Electoral Commission postponed parliamentary elections from May 2026 to March 2027 in early February, citing prolonged drought disrupting voter registration and logistics, localized security challenges, and ongoing political disagreements over electoral processes, solidifying trader consensus at 71.5% for no election before 2027. This official delay, framed as essential for credibility amid the self-declared republic's pursuit of international recognition, has suppressed odds for party outcomes. Waddani leads at 13% as the incumbent party following President Abdirahman Irro's 2024 presidential victory over Kulmiye, with UCID and Kulmiye trailing due to diminished momentum despite historical parliamentary strength from 2005. No recent reversals signal potential shifts before year-end.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election. If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027". If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Somaliland's National Electoral Commission postponed parliamentary elections from May 2026 to March 2027 in early February, citing prolonged drought disrupting voter registration and logistics, localized security challenges, and ongoing political disagreements over electoral processes, solidifying trader consensus at 71.5% for no election before 2027. This official delay, framed as essential for credibility amid the self-declared republic's pursuit of international recognition, has suppressed odds for party outcomes. Waddani leads at 13% as the incumbent party following President Abdirahman Irro's 2024 presidential victory over Kulmiye, with UCID and Kulmiye trailing due to diminished momentum despite historical parliamentary strength from 2005. No recent reversals signal potential shifts before year-end.

Somaliland's National Electoral Commission postponed parliamentary elections from May 2026 to March 2027 in early February, citing prolonged drought disrupting voter registration and logistics, localized security challenges, and ongoing political disagreements over electoral processes, solidifying trader consensus at 71.5% for no election before 2027. This official delay, framed as essential for credibility amid the self-declared republic's pursuit of international recognition, has suppressed odds for party outcomes. Waddani leads at 13% as the incumbent party following President Abdirahman Irro's 2024 presidential victory over Kulmiye, with UCID and Kulmiye trailing due to diminished momentum despite historical parliamentary strength from 2005. No recent reversals signal potential shifts before year-end.

Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Aucune élection avant 2027 » à 72%, suivi de « Waddani » à 13%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 72¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 72% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

« Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland » est un marché nouvellement créé sur Polymarket, lancé le Dec 16, 2025. En tant que marché récent, c'est votre opportunité d'être parmi les premiers traders à définir les cotes et établir les premiers signaux de prix du marché. Vous pouvez également ajouter cette page à vos favoris pour suivre le volume et l'activité de trading au fil du temps.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland » est « Aucune élection avant 2027 » à 72%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 72% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Waddani » à 13%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.