Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced on February 1, 2026, a 10-month postponement of parliamentary elections for the House of Representatives—from late May 2026 to early 2027—citing prolonged drought disrupting voter logistics, localized security challenges, and unresolved political disagreements over electoral processes, driving trader consensus to 68% on no election before 2027 as the dominant outcome. This reflects Somaliland's history of delays in its lower house vote, last held in 2005, amid strains following the disputed yet accepted 2024 presidential win by incumbent Kulmiye Party's Muse Bihi Abdi. Waddani, the leading opposition with recent local council gains, trades at 10.5% implied probability of plurality victory if polls occur, ahead of Justice and Welfare (UCID) at 4.3% and Kulmiye at 1.9%, underscoring uncertainty over timely execution despite the self-declared republic's relative democratic stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland
Vainqueur de l'élection parlementaire au Somaliland
Aucune élection avant 2027 67%
Waddani 11%
Justice et Bien-être (UCID) 3.5%
Kulmiye 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Aucune élection avant 2027
67%
Waddani
11%
Justice et Bien-être (UCID)
3%
Kulmiye
2%
Aucune élection avant 2027 67%
Waddani 11%
Justice et Bien-être (UCID) 3.5%
Kulmiye 1.9%
NEW
NEW
Mar 31, 2026
Aucune élection avant 2027
$3,083 Vol.
67%
Waddani
$1,519 Vol.
11%
Justice et Bien-être (UCID)
$2,989 Vol.
3%
Kulmiye
$1,756 Vol.
2%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced on February 1, 2026, a 10-month postponement of parliamentary elections for the House of Representatives—from late May 2026 to early 2027—citing prolonged drought disrupting voter logistics, localized security challenges, and unresolved political disagreements over electoral processes, driving trader consensus to 68% on no election before 2027 as the dominant outcome. This reflects Somaliland's history of delays in its lower house vote, last held in 2005, amid strains following the disputed yet accepted 2024 presidential win by incumbent Kulmiye Party's Muse Bihi Abdi. Waddani, the leading opposition with recent local council gains, trades at 10.5% implied probability of plurality victory if polls occur, ahead of Justice and Welfare (UCID) at 4.3% and Kulmiye at 1.9%, underscoring uncertainty over timely execution despite the self-declared republic's relative democratic stability.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ET
Volume
$9,348Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced on February 1, 2026, a 10-month postponement of parliamentary elections for the House of Representatives—from late May 2026 to early 2027—citing prolonged drought disrupting voter logistics, localized security challenges, and unresolved political disagreements over electoral processes, driving trader consensus to 68% on no election before 2027 as the dominant outcome. This reflects Somaliland's history of delays in its lower house vote, last held in 2005, amid strains following the disputed yet accepted 2024 presidential win by incumbent Kulmiye Party's Muse Bihi Abdi. Waddani, the leading opposition with recent local council gains, trades at 10.5% implied probability of plurality victory if polls occur, ahead of Justice and Welfare (UCID) at 4.3% and Kulmiye at 1.9%, underscoring uncertainty over timely execution despite the self-declared republic's relative democratic stability.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Somaliland in late March 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Somaliland House of Representatives (Golaha Wakiilada) election.
If no election takes place by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No election before 2027".
If an election takes place but the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until the certified results are released. If the results are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the Somaliland Parliament.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Somaliland government, specifically the Somaliland National Electoral Commission (Komishanka Doorashooyinka Qaranka) (slnec.net).
Volume
$9,348Date de fin
Mar 31, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 3:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Somaliland's National Electoral Commission announced on February 1, 2026, a 10-month postponement of parliamentary elections for the House of Representatives—from late May 2026 to early 2027—citing prolonged drought disrupting voter logistics, localized security challenges, and unresolved political disagreements over electoral processes, driving trader consensus to 68% on no election before 2027 as the dominant outcome. This reflects Somaliland's history of delays in its lower house vote, last held in 2005, amid strains following the disputed yet accepted 2024 presidential win by incumbent Kulmiye Party's Muse Bihi Abdi. Waddani, the leading opposition with recent local council gains, trades at 10.5% implied probability of plurality victory if polls occur, ahead of Justice and Welfare (UCID) at 4.3% and Kulmiye at 1.9%, underscoring uncertainty over timely execution despite the self-declared republic's relative democratic stability.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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