Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its entrenched role as the party of power amid a controlled political landscape. Recent polls from late March, such as FOM's 20–22 March survey showing United Russia at 41% on party lists ahead of LDPR (10%) and CPRF (8%), underscore its lead despite inflation-driven dips noted in February analyses, with the Kremlin ramping up propaganda on social initiatives. The hybrid electoral system—half proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold, half single-member constituencies—amplifies United Russia's dominance through systemic opposition fragmentation and advantages in the latter. Scenarios challenging this include a major economic crisis sparking protests, high-profile scandals, or wartime setbacks eroding support, though institutional controls make upsets improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourRussie unie (ER) 95.5%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL) 1.3%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF) 1.0%
Plateforme Civique (GP) 1.0%
$893,040 Vol.
$893,040 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Russie unie (ER)
96%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL)
1%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF)
1%
Plateforme Civique (GP)
1%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR)
1%
Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP)
<1%
Rodina
<1%
Russie unie (ER) 95.5%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL) 1.3%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF) 1.0%
Plateforme Civique (GP) 1.0%
$893,040 Vol.
$893,040 Vol.
Sep 30, 2026
Russie unie (ER)
$469,728 Vol.
96%
Nouvelles Personnes (NL)
$34,657 Vol.
1%
Parti communiste de la Fédération de Russie (KPRF)
$77,181 Vol.
1%
Plateforme Civique (GP)
$76,335 Vol.
1%
Parti libéral-démocrate de Russie (LDPR)
$31,501 Vol.
1%
Russie juste – Pour la vérité (SRZP)
$128,790 Vol.
<1%
Rodina
$74,847 Vol.
<1%
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its entrenched role as the party of power amid a controlled political landscape. Recent polls from late March, such as FOM's 20–22 March survey showing United Russia at 41% on party lists ahead of LDPR (10%) and CPRF (8%), underscore its lead despite inflation-driven dips noted in February analyses, with the Kremlin ramping up propaganda on social initiatives. The hybrid electoral system—half proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold, half single-member constituencies—amplifies United Russia's dominance through systemic opposition fragmentation and advantages in the latter. Scenarios challenging this include a major economic crisis sparking protests, high-profile scandals, or wartime setbacks eroding support, though institutional controls make upsets improbable.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Marché ouvert : Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ET
Volume
$893,040Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its entrenched role as the party of power amid a controlled political landscape. Recent polls from late March, such as FOM's 20–22 March survey showing United Russia at 41% on party lists ahead of LDPR (10%) and CPRF (8%), underscore its lead despite inflation-driven dips noted in February analyses, with the Kremlin ramping up propaganda on social initiatives. The hybrid electoral system—half proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold, half single-member constituencies—amplifies United Russia's dominance through systemic opposition fragmentation and advantages in the latter. Scenarios challenging this include a major economic crisis sparking protests, high-profile scandals, or wartime setbacks eroding support, though institutional controls make upsets improbable.
Parliamentary elections are to be scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the next Russian State Duma election.
If the results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party that received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma of the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Note: If a listed party contests the election as part of a jointly listed coalition with one or more parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the listed party will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If two or more listed parties contest the election as a jointly listed coalition, with or without additional parties not listed in this market, the market corresponding to the party within that coalition that won the most seats in the previous election will represent the coalition and will count all seats won by the coalition collectively. If such a coalition dissolves, each market will again represent its respective party individually.
Volume
$893,040Date de fin
Sep 20, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 7, 2026, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus heavily favors United Russia to secure the most seats in Russia's September 2026 State Duma election, reflecting its entrenched role as the party of power amid a controlled political landscape. Recent polls from late March, such as FOM's 20–22 March survey showing United Russia at 41% on party lists ahead of LDPR (10%) and CPRF (8%), underscore its lead despite inflation-driven dips noted in February analyses, with the Kremlin ramping up propaganda on social initiatives. The hybrid electoral system—half proportional party-list seats with a 5% threshold, half single-member constituencies—amplifies United Russia's dominance through systemic opposition fragmentation and advantages in the latter. Scenarios challenging this include a major economic crisis sparking protests, high-profile scandals, or wartime setbacks eroding support, though institutional controls make upsets improbable.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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