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Politique·Primaires

Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15

Market icon
Politique·Primaires

Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15

Ritchie Torres 85%

Michael Blake 14%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$22,002 Vol.

Ritchie Torres 85%

Michael Blake 14%

Dalourny Nemorin 2.3%

Amanda Septimo <1%

Polymarket

$22,002 Vol.

Ritchie Torres

$2,904 Vol.

85%

Michael Blake

$1,861 Vol.

14%

Dalourny Nemorin

$10,870 Vol.

2%

Amanda Septimo

$6,367 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres leads trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong fundraising, legislative record, and recent high-profile endorsements, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on March 23 and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC in February, which have solidified his position amid a crowded field. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake, at 13.5%, poses the primary challenge by criticizing Torres' pro-Israel stance and centrism—a recurring progressive critique since Blake's 2020 primary loss—but lacks comparable institutional support. Lesser-known contenders Dalourny Nemorin, a DSA-backed public defender, and Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo trail far behind, reflecting limited momentum without fresh polling to shift odds ahead of early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,002
Date de fin
23 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Incumbent Rep. Ritchie Torres leads trader consensus at 84.5% implied probability for the NY-15 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by his strong fundraising, legislative record, and recent high-profile endorsements, including former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi on March 23 and the Congressional Black Caucus PAC in February, which have solidified his position amid a crowded field. Former Assemblyman Michael Blake, at 13.5%, poses the primary challenge by criticizing Torres' pro-Israel stance and centrism—a recurring progressive critique since Blake's 2020 primary loss—but lacks comparable institutional support. Lesser-known contenders Dalourny Nemorin, a DSA-backed public defender, and Assemblywoman Amanda Septimo trail far behind, reflecting limited momentum without fresh polling to shift odds ahead of early voting.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
Volume
$22,002
Date de fin
23 juin 2026
Marché ouvert
Nov 25, 2025, 3:23 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

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Questions fréquentes

« Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 4 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Ritchie Torres » à 85%, suivi de « Michael Blake » à 14%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 85¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 85% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » a généré $22K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Nov 25, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 », parcourez les 4 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » est « Ritchie Torres » à 85%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 85% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Michael Blake » à 14%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Vainqueur de la primaire démocrate NY-15 » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.