Former NYC Comptroller Brad Lander holds a commanding trader consensus at 80.5% implied probability to win the NY-10 Democratic primary on June 23, driven by yesterday's endorsement from 32BJ SEIU—the largest property services union in New York—which bolsters his grassroots appeal in a progressive district spanning Lower Manhattan and Brooklyn neighborhoods like Park Slope and Brooklyn Heights. This follows a Supreme Court redistricting ruling in early March that finalized the map and Lander's challenge to incumbent Rep. Dan Goldman, who trails at 15.5% despite strong Q1 fundraising ($2.2 million raised, $1.5 million cash-on-hand) and club support like Independent Neighborhood Democrats. Lander's progressive backing from OurRevolution and DC 37 delegates, plus criticism of Goldman's pro-Israel PAC contributions, builds on a September 2025 poll showing Lander up 19 points; minor challengers like Avilés, Niou, and Kasky lag amid Lander's momentum, though late scandals or spending could shift the closed primary.