Trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 76.5% in New York's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's narrow 2024 victory over Anthony D'Esposito (51.1%-48.8%) and her incumbency advantage in the D+2 Cook PVI suburban Nassau County seat. Recent developments include D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his Trump administration inspector general role and launch a rematch bid, yet multiple Republican primary challengers—Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, Martin Smithmyer, and Marvin Suber Williams—fragment the GOP field ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Gillen's strong fundraising and Democratic primary edge over challengers like Kiana Bierria-Anderson bolster her position, despite Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating as of January, underscoring trader confidence in her reelection path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourNY-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NY-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Parti démocrate
71%
Parti républicain
21%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
71%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 76.5% in New York's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's narrow 2024 victory over Anthony D'Esposito (51.1%-48.8%) and her incumbency advantage in the D+2 Cook PVI suburban Nassau County seat. Recent developments include D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his Trump administration inspector general role and launch a rematch bid, yet multiple Republican primary challengers—Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, Martin Smithmyer, and Marvin Suber Williams—fragment the GOP field ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Gillen's strong fundraising and Democratic primary edge over challengers like Kiana Bierria-Anderson bolster her position, despite Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating as of January, underscoring trader confidence in her reelection path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 76.5% in New York's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's narrow 2024 victory over Anthony D'Esposito (51.1%-48.8%) and her incumbency advantage in the D+2 Cook PVI suburban Nassau County seat. Recent developments include D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his Trump administration inspector general role and launch a rematch bid, yet multiple Republican primary challengers—Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, Martin Smithmyer, and Marvin Suber Williams—fragment the GOP field ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Gillen's strong fundraising and Democratic primary edge over challengers like Kiana Bierria-Anderson bolster her position, despite Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating as of January, underscoring trader confidence in her reelection path.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the NY-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 12:27 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus prices a Democratic hold at 76.5% in New York's 4th Congressional District House race, driven by incumbent Rep. Laura Gillen's narrow 2024 victory over Anthony D'Esposito (51.1%-48.8%) and her incumbency advantage in the D+2 Cook PVI suburban Nassau County seat. Recent developments include D'Esposito's March 4 announcement to resign his Trump administration inspector general role and launch a rematch bid, yet multiple Republican primary challengers—Dennis McGrath, Brian Miller, Martin Smithmyer, and Marvin Suber Williams—fragment the GOP field ahead of the June 23 closed primaries. Gillen's strong fundraising and Democratic primary edge over challengers like Kiana Bierria-Anderson bolster her position, despite Cook Political Report's Toss Up rating as of January, underscoring trader confidence in her reelection path.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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