Trader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around 29-30% for the 3.00-3.99% range, reflecting uncertainty over recent headline surges versus anchored forecasts. February's year-over-year CPI rose to 4.02% and early March accelerated to 4.63%—driven by volatile food prices—pushing odds toward 4.00-4.49%, yet core inflation held steady at 4.5%. Banxico's 3% target (plus/minus 1%) underpins the lower bins, supported by its recent rate cut to resume easing and Q4 2026 forecast of 3.5%, aligning with BBVA's 3.9% end-year projection. Key differentiators include persistence of core pressures amid slowing growth and upcoming biweekly INEGI releases plus May policy meeting, which could sway the crowded 3-4% consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour3,00 % à 3,49 % 31.4%
3,50 % à 3,99 % 30%
4,50 % à 4,99 % 28%
5,00 % à 5,49 % 26.3%
$33,843 Vol.
$33,843 Vol.
8 janv. 2027
<2,50 %
14%
2,50 % à 2,99 %
3%
3,00 % à 3,49 %
31%
3,50 % à 3,99 %
30%
4,00 % à 4,49 %
24%
4,50 % à 4,99 %
28%
5,00 % à 5,49 %
21%
5,50 %+
23%
3,00 % à 3,49 % 31.4%
3,50 % à 3,99 % 30%
4,50 % à 4,99 % 28%
5,00 % à 5,49 % 26.3%
$33,843 Vol.
$33,843 Vol.
8 janv. 2027
<2,50 %
$0 Vol.
14%
2,50 % à 2,99 %
$0 Vol.
3%
3,00 % à 3,49 %
$25,641 Vol.
31%
3,50 % à 3,99 %
$250 Vol.
30%
4,00 % à 4,49 %
$286 Vol.
24%
4,50 % à 4,99 %
$2,995 Vol.
28%
5,00 % à 5,49 %
$356 Vol.
21%
5,50 %+
$4,316 Vol.
23%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around 29-30% for the 3.00-3.99% range, reflecting uncertainty over recent headline surges versus anchored forecasts. February's year-over-year CPI rose to 4.02% and early March accelerated to 4.63%—driven by volatile food prices—pushing odds toward 4.00-4.49%, yet core inflation held steady at 4.5%. Banxico's 3% target (plus/minus 1%) underpins the lower bins, supported by its recent rate cut to resume easing and Q4 2026 forecast of 3.5%, aligning with BBVA's 3.9% end-year projection. Key differentiators include persistence of core pressures amid slowing growth and upcoming biweekly INEGI releases plus May policy meeting, which could sway the crowded 3-4% consensus.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volume
$33,843Date de fin
8 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around 29-30% for the 3.00-3.99% range, reflecting uncertainty over recent headline surges versus anchored forecasts. February's year-over-year CPI rose to 4.02% and early March accelerated to 4.63%—driven by volatile food prices—pushing odds toward 4.00-4.49%, yet core inflation held steady at 4.5%. Banxico's 3% target (plus/minus 1%) underpins the lower bins, supported by its recent rate cut to resume easing and Q4 2026 forecast of 3.5%, aligning with BBVA's 3.9% end-year projection. Key differentiators include persistence of core pressures amid slowing growth and upcoming biweekly INEGI releases plus May policy meeting, which could sway the crowded 3-4% consensus.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volume
$33,843Date de fin
8 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual inflation remains tightly contested, with market-implied probabilities clustered around 29-30% for the 3.00-3.99% range, reflecting uncertainty over recent headline surges versus anchored forecasts. February's year-over-year CPI rose to 4.02% and early March accelerated to 4.63%—driven by volatile food prices—pushing odds toward 4.00-4.49%, yet core inflation held steady at 4.5%. Banxico's 3% target (plus/minus 1%) underpins the lower bins, supported by its recent rate cut to resume easing and Q4 2026 forecast of 3.5%, aligning with BBVA's 3.9% end-year projection. Key differentiators include persistence of core pressures amid slowing growth and upcoming biweekly INEGI releases plus May policy meeting, which could sway the crowded 3-4% consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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