Open-seat contest in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid, sees trader consensus at 79.5% for Republican Party victory, anchored by the district's Solid Republican Cook rating and R+7 partisan lean—evident in 57-63% GOP general election margins over three cycles and Trump's 15-point 2024 win. Crowded primaries on May 19 feature five Republicans, led in fundraising by Adam Perez Arquette ($1.66 million cash on hand), against six Democrats fragmented post-March 3 debate among Zach Dembo, Cherlynn Stevenson, and others. Recent ad wars launched March 26 and ex-Rep. John Yarmuth's endorsement of a Democratic candidate highlight intensifying primary battles, but structural GOP advantages keep Democratic odds at 20%, with no public polls shifting sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourKY-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
KY-06 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
80%
Parti démocrate
20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
80%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Open-seat contest in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid, sees trader consensus at 79.5% for Republican Party victory, anchored by the district's Solid Republican Cook rating and R+7 partisan lean—evident in 57-63% GOP general election margins over three cycles and Trump's 15-point 2024 win. Crowded primaries on May 19 feature five Republicans, led in fundraising by Adam Perez Arquette ($1.66 million cash on hand), against six Democrats fragmented post-March 3 debate among Zach Dembo, Cherlynn Stevenson, and others. Recent ad wars launched March 26 and ex-Rep. John Yarmuth's endorsement of a Democratic candidate highlight intensifying primary battles, but structural GOP advantages keep Democratic odds at 20%, with no public polls shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Open-seat contest in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid, sees trader consensus at 79.5% for Republican Party victory, anchored by the district's Solid Republican Cook rating and R+7 partisan lean—evident in 57-63% GOP general election margins over three cycles and Trump's 15-point 2024 win. Crowded primaries on May 19 feature five Republicans, led in fundraising by Adam Perez Arquette ($1.66 million cash on hand), against six Democrats fragmented post-March 3 debate among Zach Dembo, Cherlynn Stevenson, and others. Recent ad wars launched March 26 and ex-Rep. John Yarmuth's endorsement of a Democratic candidate highlight intensifying primary battles, but structural GOP advantages keep Democratic odds at 20%, with no public polls shifting sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the KY-06 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Open-seat contest in Kentucky's 6th Congressional District, vacated by Rep. Andy Barr's U.S. Senate bid, sees trader consensus at 79.5% for Republican Party victory, anchored by the district's Solid Republican Cook rating and R+7 partisan lean—evident in 57-63% GOP general election margins over three cycles and Trump's 15-point 2024 win. Crowded primaries on May 19 feature five Republicans, led in fundraising by Adam Perez Arquette ($1.66 million cash on hand), against six Democrats fragmented post-March 3 debate among Zach Dembo, Cherlynn Stevenson, and others. Recent ad wars launched March 26 and ex-Rep. John Yarmuth's endorsement of a Democratic candidate highlight intensifying primary battles, but structural GOP advantages keep Democratic odds at 20%, with no public polls shifting sentiment.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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