Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus at 85% for a GOP Senate win, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Marshall's 2020 victory margin and historical base rates favoring incumbents in safe seats. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without notable challengers emerging from the GOP primary. Democrats feature a crowded field of eight candidates, highlighted by a March forum, but lack a frontrunner or competitive polling, leaving their 14.5% implied probability constrained by structural barriers. Filing deadline looms June 1, with primaries August 4 and general election November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour$13,459 Vol.
$13,459 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
85%
Démocrate
15%
$13,459 Vol.
$13,459 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Républicain
$7,300 Vol.
85%
Démocrate
$6,158 Vol.
15%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus at 85% for a GOP Senate win, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Marshall's 2020 victory margin and historical base rates favoring incumbents in safe seats. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without notable challengers emerging from the GOP primary. Democrats feature a crowded field of eight candidates, highlighted by a March forum, but lack a frontrunner or competitive polling, leaving their 14.5% implied probability constrained by structural barriers. Filing deadline looms June 1, with primaries August 4 and general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Marché ouvert : Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Volume
$13,459Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus at 85% for a GOP Senate win, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Marshall's 2020 victory margin and historical base rates favoring incumbents in safe seats. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without notable challengers emerging from the GOP primary. Democrats feature a crowded field of eight candidates, highlighted by a March forum, but lack a frontrunner or competitive polling, leaving their 14.5% implied probability constrained by structural barriers. Filing deadline looms June 1, with primaries August 4 and general election November 3.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Kansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$13,459Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Oct 13, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Roger Marshall's strong position in solidly red Kansas drives trader consensus at 85% for a GOP Senate win, reflecting the state's consistent Republican dominance—evident in Marshall's 2020 victory margin and historical base rates favoring incumbents in safe seats. Marshall filed for re-election in January 2026 and toured the state in late February touting tax cuts, bolstering his visibility without notable challengers emerging from the GOP primary. Democrats feature a crowded field of eight candidates, highlighted by a March forum, but lack a frontrunner or competitive polling, leaving their 14.5% implied probability constrained by structural barriers. Filing deadline looms June 1, with primaries August 4 and general election November 3.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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