Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's re-election bid in the R+15 Indiana 4th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's consistent Republican dominance—Baird won 65% in 2024 amid 64% Trump support—and uniform "Solid/Safe Republican" ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent candidate filings post-February deadline set a competitive GOP primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard and John Piper ahead of the May 5 vote, while Democrats face a crowded seven-way primary with no clear frontrunner. Fundraising edges Baird slightly over Haggard as of late 2025. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, personal scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural, conservative bastion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IN-04 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
91%
Parti démocrate
9%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
91%
Parti démocrate
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's re-election bid in the R+15 Indiana 4th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's consistent Republican dominance—Baird won 65% in 2024 amid 64% Trump support—and uniform "Solid/Safe Republican" ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent candidate filings post-February deadline set a competitive GOP primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard and John Piper ahead of the May 5 vote, while Democrats face a crowded seven-way primary with no clear frontrunner. Fundraising edges Baird slightly over Haggard as of late 2025. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, personal scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural, conservative bastion.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ET
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's re-election bid in the R+15 Indiana 4th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's consistent Republican dominance—Baird won 65% in 2024 amid 64% Trump support—and uniform "Solid/Safe Republican" ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent candidate filings post-February deadline set a competitive GOP primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard and John Piper ahead of the May 5 vote, while Democrats face a crowded seven-way primary with no clear frontrunner. Fundraising edges Baird slightly over Haggard as of late 2025. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, personal scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural, conservative bastion.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$0Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 28, 2026, 11:09 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Jim Baird's re-election bid in the R+15 Indiana 4th Congressional District anchors trader consensus at 91% for a GOP hold, reflecting the district's consistent Republican dominance—Baird won 65% in 2024 amid 64% Trump support—and uniform "Solid/Safe Republican" ratings from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Recent candidate filings post-February deadline set a competitive GOP primary against state Rep. Craig Haggard and John Piper ahead of the May 5 vote, while Democrats face a crowded seven-way primary with no clear frontrunner. Fundraising edges Baird slightly over Haggard as of late 2025. Realistic challenges include a primary upset yielding a weaker nominee, personal scandal, or national Democratic midterm wave shifting turnout in this rural, conservative bastion.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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