Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's strong reelection in 2024 with 53% amid a D+1 Cook Partisan Voter Index solidifies Democratic trader consensus at 75% for Indiana's 1st District House seat, reflecting his incumbency edge in a longtime Democratic stronghold. The Republican field fragmented after former nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green's February 5 withdrawal—citing the seat's difficulty post her narrow 2022 loss and recent ethics fine—leaving primaries on May 5 contested by Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, James Schenke, and perennial filer Richard Mayers, none with proven statewide pull. Cook rates it Likely Democratic, with no polls yet but history favoring Mrvan despite midterm headwinds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourIN-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
IN-01 Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Parti démocrate
75%
Parti républicain
20%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
Parti démocrate
$53 Vol.
75%
Parti républicain
$0 Vol.
20%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's strong reelection in 2024 with 53% amid a D+1 Cook Partisan Voter Index solidifies Democratic trader consensus at 75% for Indiana's 1st District House seat, reflecting his incumbency edge in a longtime Democratic stronghold. The Republican field fragmented after former nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green's February 5 withdrawal—citing the seat's difficulty post her narrow 2022 loss and recent ethics fine—leaving primaries on May 5 contested by Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, James Schenke, and perennial filer Richard Mayers, none with proven statewide pull. Cook rates it Likely Democratic, with no polls yet but history favoring Mrvan despite midterm headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ET
Volume
$53Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's strong reelection in 2024 with 53% amid a D+1 Cook Partisan Voter Index solidifies Democratic trader consensus at 75% for Indiana's 1st District House seat, reflecting his incumbency edge in a longtime Democratic stronghold. The Republican field fragmented after former nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green's February 5 withdrawal—citing the seat's difficulty post her narrow 2022 loss and recent ethics fine—leaving primaries on May 5 contested by Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, James Schenke, and perennial filer Richard Mayers, none with proven statewide pull. Cook rates it Likely Democratic, with no polls yet but history favoring Mrvan despite midterm headwinds.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the IN-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$53Date de fin
Nov 4, 2026Marché ouvert
Dec 16, 2025, 11:52 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Frank Mrvan's strong reelection in 2024 with 53% amid a D+1 Cook Partisan Voter Index solidifies Democratic trader consensus at 75% for Indiana's 1st District House seat, reflecting his incumbency edge in a longtime Democratic stronghold. The Republican field fragmented after former nominee Jennifer-Ruth Green's February 5 withdrawal—citing the seat's difficulty post her narrow 2022 loss and recent ethics fine—leaving primaries on May 5 contested by Barb Regnitz, David Ben Ruiz, James Schenke, and perennial filer Richard Mayers, none with proven statewide pull. Cook rates it Likely Democratic, with no polls yet but history favoring Mrvan despite midterm headwinds.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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