Trader sentiment hinges on ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting Sao Paulo's March 25 peak temperature tightly between 29°C and 30°C, with minimal spread reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. INMET's official guidance favors 30°C amid urban heat island effects at the Congonhas station, while higher-resolution ICON runs suggest 29°C due to potential afternoon cloudiness from convective activity. Historical late-March maxima average 28.5°C but often hit 30°C+ during similar ridging patterns; traders await 12Z model updates tomorrow, as small biases in peak-hour insolation could tip the outcome, explaining the razor-thin 3-point spread atop the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on March 25?
30°C 39%
29°C 37%
31°C 14%
28°C 11%
$24,433 Vol.
$24,433 Vol.
24 °C ou moins
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
11%
29°C
37%
30°C
39%
31°C
14%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
30°C 39%
29°C 37%
31°C 14%
28°C 11%
$24,433 Vol.
$24,433 Vol.
24 °C ou moins
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
2%
28°C
11%
29°C
37%
30°C
39%
31°C
14%
32°C
3%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGRResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment hinges on ensemble weather models like ECMWF and GFS projecting Sao Paulo's March 25 peak temperature tightly between 29°C and 30°C, with minimal spread reflecting a stable high-pressure ridge over southeastern Brazil. INMET's official guidance favors 30°C amid urban heat island effects at the Congonhas station, while higher-resolution ICON runs suggest 29°C due to potential afternoon cloudiness from convective activity. Historical late-March maxima average 28.5°C but often hit 30°C+ during similar ridging patterns; traders await 12Z model updates tomorrow, as small biases in peak-hour insolation could tip the outcome, explaining the razor-thin 3-point spread atop the market.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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