Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F at 32.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF, which cluster forecasts around 82°F for March 28 amid a building upper-level ridge fostering above-normal warmth. Differentiating the close contenders—80-81°F (24.5%) and 84-85°F (23%)—hinges on sea breeze timing and inland progression; stronger onshore flow could cap peaks at 80-81°F via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes or increased insolation push toward 84-85°F. Historical March 28 averages hover near 79°F, but persistent southwesterly winds and elevated sea surface temperatures elevate the baseline, with model spread reflecting diurnal uncertainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourLa température la plus élevée à Miami le 28 mars ?
La température la plus élevée à Miami le 28 mars ?
82-83°F 33%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 23%
88-89 °F 8%
73°F ou moins
1%
74-75 °F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
33%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
8%
88-89 °F
8%
90-91°F
4%
92°F ou plus
2%
82-83°F 33%
80-81°F 26%
84-85°F 23%
88-89 °F 8%
73°F ou moins
1%
74-75 °F
2%
76-77°F
2%
78-79°F
7%
80-81°F
26%
82-83°F
33%
84-85°F
23%
86-87°F
8%
88-89 °F
8%
90-91°F
4%
92°F ou plus
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Miami Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 24, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/fl/miami/KMIAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Miami high temperature of 82-83°F at 32.5% implied probability, driven by the latest NOAA Weather Prediction Center guidance and ensemble model outputs from GFS and ECMWF, which cluster forecasts around 82°F for March 28 amid a building upper-level ridge fostering above-normal warmth. Differentiating the close contenders—80-81°F (24.5%) and 84-85°F (23%)—hinges on sea breeze timing and inland progression; stronger onshore flow could cap peaks at 80-81°F via evaporative cooling, while delayed breezes or increased insolation push toward 84-85°F. Historical March 28 averages hover near 79°F, but persistent southwesterly winds and elevated sea surface temperatures elevate the baseline, with model spread reflecting diurnal uncertainties.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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