Traders have locked in near-certainty on a Chicago high of 70-71°F on March 20, propelled by the latest NOAA and National Weather Service forecasts converging on this precise range amid stable spring patterns. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight spreads around 70°F, reflecting seasonable warmth from a weakening El Niño influence and mild southerly flow, well above the historical March 20 average of 48°F at O'Hare but shy of records. This positioning aligns with verified soundings indicating capped instability. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen ridge amplification or jet streak surge pushing 72°F+, though model probabilities below 5% and recent analogs suggest minimal upset risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
Highest temperature in Chicago on March 20?
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$255,245 Vol.
$255,245 Vol.
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
70-71°F 100.0%
72-73°F <1%
74-75°F <1%
76-77°F <1%
$255,245 Vol.
$255,245 Vol.
70-71°F
100%
72-73°F
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76-77°F
<1%
78°F or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 16, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders have locked in near-certainty on a Chicago high of 70-71°F on March 20, propelled by the latest NOAA and National Weather Service forecasts converging on this precise range amid stable spring patterns. Ensemble models like GFS and ECMWF show tight spreads around 70°F, reflecting seasonable warmth from a weakening El Niño influence and mild southerly flow, well above the historical March 20 average of 48°F at O'Hare but shy of records. This positioning aligns with verified soundings indicating capped instability. Realistic challenges include an unforeseen ridge amplification or jet streak surge pushing 72°F+, though model probabilities below 5% and recent analogs suggest minimal upset risk.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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