Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Chengdu high temperature of 24°C (32%) or 23°C (25.5%), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks in the 22-25°C range amid a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge over southern China. Late March norms hover around 18-20°C, but positive temperature anomalies from persistent southerly winds and above-average solar insolation have pushed recent days warmer, with March 24-25 highs hitting 23°C per China Meteorological Administration observations. Model spread introduces uncertainty—drier air could cap at 22°C (20%), while increased cloud cover or urban heat might nudge to 25°C—keeping lower outcomes viable as final soundings refine diurnal maxima.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 26?
24°C 32%
23°C 29%
22°C 19%
21°C 9%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
9%
22°C
19%
23°C
29%
24°C
32%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
24°C 32%
23°C 29%
22°C 19%
21°C 9%
17°C or below
1%
18°C
1%
19°C
2%
20°C
2%
21°C
9%
22°C
19%
23°C
29%
24°C
32%
25°C
6%
26°C
3%
27°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Mar 22, 2026, 6:12 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a Chengdu high temperature of 24°C (32%) or 23°C (25.5%), driven by ensemble forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models projecting peaks in the 22-25°C range amid a strengthening subtropical high-pressure ridge over southern China. Late March norms hover around 18-20°C, but positive temperature anomalies from persistent southerly winds and above-average solar insolation have pushed recent days warmer, with March 24-25 highs hitting 23°C per China Meteorological Administration observations. Model spread introduces uncertainty—drier air could cap at 22°C (20%), while increased cloud cover or urban heat might nudge to 25°C—keeping lower outcomes viable as final soundings refine diurnal maxima.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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