Polymarket traders assign 37.6% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 0-1.0% in 2026, closely followed by 1.0-2.0% at 30.0% and contraction below 0% at 24.4%, reflecting consensus around subdued expansion amid escalating energy shocks. The European Central Bank's March 19 projections downgraded 2026 GDP to 0.9%—0.5 percentage points below prior estimates—while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%, driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices and eroding real disposable incomes. Q4 2025 growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, signaling fading momentum, with ECB policymakers warning of entrenched inflation risks prompting potential rate hikes. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 GDP data and energy price trajectories, which could tip sentiment toward recession or mild recovery.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour0-1,0 % 37.6%
1,0-2,0 % 30%
<0 % 23.5%
4,0-5,0 % 16.7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
25%
0-1,0 %
38%
1,0-2,0 %
30%
2,0-3,0 %
16%
3,0-4,0 %
16%
4,0-5,0 %
18%
5,0-6,0 %
10%
6,0-7,0 %
10%
7,0 %+
9%
0-1,0 % 37.6%
1,0-2,0 % 30%
<0 % 23.5%
4,0-5,0 % 16.7%
NOUVEAU
NOUVEAU
31 janv. 2027
<0 %
$0 Vol.
25%
0-1,0 %
$414 Vol.
38%
1,0-2,0 %
$0 Vol.
30%
2,0-3,0 %
$0 Vol.
16%
3,0-4,0 %
$0 Vol.
16%
4,0-5,0 %
$1,375 Vol.
18%
5,0-6,0 %
$0 Vol.
10%
6,0-7,0 %
$524 Vol.
10%
7,0 %+
$0 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign 37.6% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 0-1.0% in 2026, closely followed by 1.0-2.0% at 30.0% and contraction below 0% at 24.4%, reflecting consensus around subdued expansion amid escalating energy shocks. The European Central Bank's March 19 projections downgraded 2026 GDP to 0.9%—0.5 percentage points below prior estimates—while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%, driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices and eroding real disposable incomes. Q4 2025 growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, signaling fading momentum, with ECB policymakers warning of entrenched inflation risks prompting potential rate hikes. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 GDP data and energy price trajectories, which could tip sentiment toward recession or mild recovery.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Marché ouvert : Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
Volume
$2,313Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.Polymarket traders assign 37.6% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 0-1.0% in 2026, closely followed by 1.0-2.0% at 30.0% and contraction below 0% at 24.4%, reflecting consensus around subdued expansion amid escalating energy shocks. The European Central Bank's March 19 projections downgraded 2026 GDP to 0.9%—0.5 percentage points below prior estimates—while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%, driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices and eroding real disposable incomes. Q4 2025 growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, signaling fading momentum, with ECB policymakers warning of entrenched inflation risks prompting potential rate hikes. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 GDP data and energy price trajectories, which could tip sentiment toward recession or mild recovery.
This market will resolve according to the estimation of Euro Area (Eurozone) annual GDP growth for the full year of 2026 (% change), based on seasonally and calendar adjusted quarterly data, as reported in the "GDP and employment flash estimates for the fourth quarter of 2026" flash release for Q4 of 2026, scheduled to be released in January 2027.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/web/main/news/euro-indicators
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the Euro Area GDP growth rate for the full year of 2026 is included in this release, this market will resolve according to the Euro Area GDP growth rate for Q4 2026, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year. If no data is released for either the full year or fourth quarter of 2026 by the date the next quarter's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available quarter, as compared to the same quarter in the previous year.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced flash GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following quarter or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release of the specified report will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Volume
$2,313Date de fin
31 janv. 2027Marché ouvert
Jan 21, 2026, 7:29 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders assign 37.6% implied probability to Eurozone annual GDP growth of 0-1.0% in 2026, closely followed by 1.0-2.0% at 30.0% and contraction below 0% at 24.4%, reflecting consensus around subdued expansion amid escalating energy shocks. The European Central Bank's March 19 projections downgraded 2026 GDP to 0.9%—0.5 percentage points below prior estimates—while lifting headline inflation to 2.6%, driven by Middle East tensions spiking oil prices and eroding real disposable incomes. Q4 2025 growth was revised lower to 0.2% quarter-on-quarter, signaling fading momentum, with ECB policymakers warning of entrenched inflation risks prompting potential rate hikes. Key swing factors include April 30 Q1 GDP data and energy price trajectories, which could tip sentiment toward recession or mild recovery.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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