Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) leads fundraising with over $590,000 cash on hand entering California's June 2 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the D+39 12th Congressional District, the nation's second-most Democratic seat encompassing Oakland and Berkeley. No Republican candidates qualified after Heath Fulkerson's disqualification, ensuring the November 3 general election pits two Democrats regardless of primary outcomes, as in Simon's 2024 65%-35% win over another Democrat. This structural certainty, reinforced by the district's 84% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory. Realistic challenges—a late Republican write-in surge, legal ballot intervention, or scandal derailing both Democrats—remain improbable given historical GOP margins below 15% and entrenched progressive turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-12
Vainqueur de l'élection à la Chambre CA-12
$12,956 Vol.
$12,956 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
95%
Parti républicain
5%
$12,956 Vol.
$12,956 Vol.
Nov 3, 2026
Parti démocrate
$8,131 Vol.
95%
Parti républicain
$4,825 Vol.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) leads fundraising with over $590,000 cash on hand entering California's June 2 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the D+39 12th Congressional District, the nation's second-most Democratic seat encompassing Oakland and Berkeley. No Republican candidates qualified after Heath Fulkerson's disqualification, ensuring the November 3 general election pits two Democrats regardless of primary outcomes, as in Simon's 2024 65%-35% win over another Democrat. This structural certainty, reinforced by the district's 84% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory. Realistic challenges—a late Republican write-in surge, legal ballot intervention, or scandal derailing both Democrats—remain improbable given historical GOP margins below 15% and entrenched progressive turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Marché ouvert : Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$12,956Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) leads fundraising with over $590,000 cash on hand entering California's June 2 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the D+39 12th Congressional District, the nation's second-most Democratic seat encompassing Oakland and Berkeley. No Republican candidates qualified after Heath Fulkerson's disqualification, ensuring the November 3 general election pits two Democrats regardless of primary outcomes, as in Simon's 2024 65%-35% win over another Democrat. This structural certainty, reinforced by the district's 84% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory. Realistic challenges—a late Republican write-in surge, legal ballot intervention, or scandal derailing both Democrats—remain improbable given historical GOP margins below 15% and entrenched progressive turnout.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-12 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$12,956Date de fin
Nov 3, 2026Marché ouvert
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Lateefah Simon (D) leads fundraising with over $590,000 cash on hand entering California's June 2 top-two primary against fellow Democrat Jamie Joyce in the D+39 12th Congressional District, the nation's second-most Democratic seat encompassing Oakland and Berkeley. No Republican candidates qualified after Heath Fulkerson's disqualification, ensuring the November 3 general election pits two Democrats regardless of primary outcomes, as in Simon's 2024 65%-35% win over another Democrat. This structural certainty, reinforced by the district's 84% Democratic presidential vote in 2024, drives trader consensus to a 94.5% implied probability for Democratic Party victory. Realistic challenges—a late Republican write-in surge, legal ballot intervention, or scandal derailing both Democrats—remain improbable given historical GOP margins below 15% and entrenched progressive turnout.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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