Name: Will Washington's anti-carbon cap initiative pass?
Start: 2024-08-26T21:21:10.369187Z
End: 2024-11-05T12:00:00Z

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Washington Initiative 2117, Prohibit Carbon Tax Credit Trading and Repeal Carbon Cap-and-Invest Program Measure (2024), is set to be voted on during the November 5, 2024 US general elections. More information on this initiative can be found here: https://ballotpedia.org/Washington_Initiative_2117,_Prohibit_Carbon_Tax_Credit_Trading_and_Repeal_Carbon_Cap-and-Invest_Program_Measure_(2024)

This market will resolve "Yes" if Washington Initiative 2117 passes as a result of the vote scheduled for November 5, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible media sources regarding this vote, however in case of ambiguity this market may remain open until official state results are released.

Will Washington's anti-carbon cap initiative pass?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Washington Commanders, the team ownership, or the NFL officially announces that the team will change its name back to the Washington Redskins by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Only announcements of an official team name change to “Washington Redskins,” or any name that explicitly includes the word “Redskins” in the team name, will qualify. Speculative statements, informal statements of intent, or announcements of changes to mascots, logos, uniforms, or other team branding elements that do not constitute an official name change will not qualify.

Official announcements will qualify regardless of if/when the name change takes effect.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Washington change name to "Redskins" in 2025?

A one-time wealth tax on billionaires has been proposed to potentially appear on California's ballot for the November 3, 2026 general election. You can read more about that here: https://6abc.com/post/california-union-proposes-taxing-billionaires-offset-medicaid-cuts-low-income-people/18066430/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any proposition containing a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent) passes in the named election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If no qualifying ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot as a proposition to be voted on in the stated election by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved), or if all qualifying propositions/initiatives are removed from the ballot or amended before the election such that the main threshold drops below $1 billion, this market will resolve "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of the State of California, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ballot initiative is certified to appear on the official statewide California ballot for the November 3, 2026 election, that proposes a one-time tax targeting individuals, households, or family units with wealth, assets, or net worth of at least $1 billion (USD or equivalent), by June 25, 2026, 11:59 PM ET (the official cutoff date for new initiatives to be approved). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Certification means the initiative is officially approved by the California Secretary of State for a statewide ballot.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of California. If unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. 

Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any house of any US state legislature holds a vote, as part of its standard legislative process, on a bill, resolution, or constitutional amendment whose main purpose is for the state to secede from the United States, or to otherwise declare its support for such a secession, by June 30, 2026 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying measure must clearly state its purpose as part of a process for the state to leave, withdraw from, dissolve political ties with, declare independence from, or otherwise terminate its membership in the United States; measures which merely study, explore, or explain a possibility of secession or independence will not qualify. Informal measures of consensus taking such as straw polls or whip counts will not qualify toward this market's resolution.

A vote on a resolution or other statement without binding legal effect but declaring the state's explicit support for secession will qualify toward this market's resolution.

Only a vote taken by a full chamber will qualify toward this market's resolution. Votes held by committees/subcommittees, etc., will not qualify.

This market's primary resolution source will be official records of qualifying votes from relevant state governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Any US state legislature votes on secession by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the WA-08 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Jeff Bezos will be, has, or is in the process of selling a majority stake in The Washington Post by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement by Jeff Bezos or one of his representatives will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced sale actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jeff Bezos however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bezos announce Washington Post sale in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a constitutional amendment establishing term limits for members of the United States Congress is ratified by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Congressional term limits in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

Will the Democratic Party win the WA-03 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" any portion of Canada is formally annexed into the United States of America and becomes the 51st state by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

An official agreement that is announced will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when it is slated to go into effect. If any territory that includes no portion of Canadian land is made the 51st US state within this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Canada join US as 51st state in 2025?

This market will resolve "Yes" if the bill listed is signed into law by the President of the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A bill will only qualify if it receives the President’s signature and becomes law through the normal legislative process. Vetoed bills, bills passed only by one chamber, or those that fail to reach the President’s desk, will not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be official information from Congress.gov or the White House; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used if ambiguity arises.

Will the War Powers Resolution on Iran (H.Con.Res.38) be signed into law by December 31 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government. 

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits which have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes," regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?

The Trump administration is considering imposing sanctions against the United Nations Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA). You can read more about that here: https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-weighs-hitting-un-palestinian-refugee-agency-with-terrorism-related-sanctions-2025-12-10/.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States officially imposes new sanctions of any form against the UNRWA by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Sanctions could include measures like financial penalties, diplomatic expulsions, travel bans, asset freezes, restrictions on specific individuals, restrictions on foreign entities from providing funding to the UNRWA, or any other actions that are commonly recognized as sanctions. A U.S. designation of the UNRWA as a Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) or any other official terrorist designation will qualify as sanctions.

Sanctions against the entire UNRWA, specific parts of UNRWA operations, or specific officials of the UNRWA will count. Sanctions against citizens or entities which do not directly target the UNRWA or its officials will not qualify.

The passage of an official act/executive order authorizing sanctions on the UNRWA within this market's timeframe will count toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of if/when the sanctions come into effect.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump Sanction UNRWA in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues a presidential veto of any bill by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be official congressional records and a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump veto a bill in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual officially announces that they are running for U.S. President in the 2028 United States presidential election by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement by the listed individual  will be sufficient to trigger a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether they actually filed a nomination to run, or whether they actually file a nomination to run in the future.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by the listed individual (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any bill into law that aims to repeal or alter presidential term limits as defined by the 22nd Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, or if the U.S. Supreme Court rules in a way that would permit a president to serve more than two terms by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any law signed meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration and U.S. Supreme Court decisions.

Will Trump repeal Presidential term limits in 2025?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US Internal Revenue Department ceases operations entirely by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the IRS is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the Internal Revenue Service it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes IRS in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of whether enhanced ACA premium tax credits will be extended in 2025 (https://polymarket.com/event/enhanced-aca-premium-tax-credits-extended-in-2025?) and according to which party will win the House in 2026 (https://polymarket.com/event/which-party-will-win-the-house-in-2026?).

The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:

1. Enhanced ACA premium tax credits extended in 2025?
Affordable Care Act (ACA) enhanced premium tax credits are set to expire at the end of 2025 if not extended by the federal government.

This market will resolve according to whether a bill extending the enhanced ACA premium tax credits beyond 2025 is signed into federal law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. 

A qualifying bill may extend the enhanced ACA premium tax credits in any form, including shorter extensions, phased-down benefits, or narrowed eligibility, as long as the bill clearly continues enhanced premium tax credits that have wider eligibility and/or lower required income contributions relative to baseline ACA premium tax credits that would otherwise apply after 2025.

A bill replacing the ACA enhanced premium tax credits with an alternative form of healthcare subsidy, such as direct cash payments to a health savings account, will not qualify.

If the bill is signed into law before 2026, it will qualify to resolve this market, regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary source of resolution will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

2. Which party will win the House in 2026?
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the House of Representatives following the 2026 U.S. House elections scheduled for November 3, 2026.

House control is defined as having more than half of the voting members of the U.S. House of Representatives.

If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Speaker of the House is selected following the 2026 U.S. general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the Speaker is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected Speaker does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”.

Determination of which party controls the House after the 2026 U.S. House elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.

Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US federal income tax is eliminated between January 21 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "abolishing the federal income tax" means the elimination of federal income tax obligations for individuals in the US, not merely reductions, suspensions, or alterations to tax rates, brackets, or enforcement policies. The market will not consider executive orders, temporary measures, or proposals that do not become law.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, including announcements from Donald Trump and the IRS, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump abolishes the Federal Income Tax in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action enacting a tariff on imports of semiconductors into the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Only tariffs specifically targeting semiconductors will qualify. For example, a general tariff (tariffs on all imports into the U.S.) or country-specific tariff (tariffs on all imports from China) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Tariffs on semiconductors from a specific country will qualify.

Any tariff which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the tariff goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump imposes tariff on semiconductors by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official recount is initiated 2025 New York City Mayoral Election process by January 1, 2025. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

If the legal deadline to initiate a recount has passed 2025 NYC mayoral election, and there are no formal or legal processes underway to initiate a recount, this market may resolve to "No".
 
A recount is defined as a formal re-tallying of votes that is ordered by election authorities, whether automatically triggered by law, requested by a candidate, or ordered by a court. 

The resolution source will be official information from the relevant election authorities.

Will there be a recount in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally initiates a withdrawal from the World Trade Organization (WTO) or provides official written notice of withdrawal to the Director-General of the WTO by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A notice of withdrawl refers to the submission of a written notice of withdrawal as per Article XV of the Marrakesh Agreement establishing the World Trade Organization (https://www.wto.org/english/res_e/publications_e/ai17_e/wto_agree_art15_oth.pdf).

Any action meeting these criteria will qualify for a “Yes” resolution regardless of if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The resolution source will be official information from the US government and the WTO, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

US announces withdrawal from WTO in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if an official agreement on nuclear arms control or strategic nuclear weapons limitation is reached between the United States and the Russian Federation between December 9, 2025 and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Only agreements that are publicly announced and acknowledged by both the U.S. and Russia will qualify. The agreement must pertain to nuclear arms control or limitation—such as a treaty, framework, or memorandum—addressing matters including (but not limited to) nuclear warheads, delivery systems, verification mechanisms, or strategic stability.

An extension, amendment, or replacement of the New START treaty will qualify, provided it is publicly announced as a concluded agreement by both parties within the time frame. Exploratory discussions or stated intent to extend without a finalized agreement will not qualify.

Agreements that include both the United States and Russia as named parties—whether bilateral or as part of a broader multilateral framework—will qualify, provided the agreement directly addresses nuclear arms control.

The agreement does not need to be ratified or implemented for this market to resolve "Yes"; a formal announcement of a concluded agreement is sufficient.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from the U.S. government (e.g., the White House, State Department) and/or the Russian Federation (e.g., the Kremlin, Ministry of Foreign Affairs). However, a clear and overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirming that such an agreement has been reached will also qualify.

Will Washington's anti-carbon cap initiative pass?

Market Context

Will Washington's anti-carbon cap initiative pass?

Rules

Will Washington's anti-carbon cap initiative pass?

Market Context

Will Washington's anti-carbon cap initiative pass?

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