US-Iran tensions persist amid Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, with the US providing defensive support through intelligence sharing and munitions resupply but no direct offensive actions or Congressional war authorization. Formal declarations of war, last issued during World War II, require explicit Congressional approval under Article I Section 8, a threshold unmet amid current de-escalation signals from all parties despite stalled nuclear diplomacy and ongoing sanctions. President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric signals potential escalation risks post-January 20 inauguration, though traders weigh historical reluctance for full-scale conflict absent major provocation like direct attacks on US assets. No votes, summits, or hearings are scheduled that could trigger movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedWill the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by...?
$4,266,553 Vol.
Mar 31, 2026
March 31
<1%
April 30
2%
December 31
10%
$4,266,553 Vol.
March 31
$3,934,825 Vol.
<1%
April 30
$31,053 Vol.
2%
December 31
$300,676 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran tensions persist amid Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, with the US providing defensive support through intelligence sharing and munitions resupply but no direct offensive actions or Congressional war authorization. Formal declarations of war, last issued during World War II, require explicit Congressional approval under Article I Section 8, a threshold unmet amid current de-escalation signals from all parties despite stalled nuclear diplomacy and ongoing sanctions. President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric signals potential escalation risks post-January 20 inauguration, though traders weigh historical reluctance for full-scale conflict absent major provocation like direct attacks on US assets. No votes, summits, or hearings are scheduled that could trigger movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ET
Volume
$4,266,553End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.US-Iran tensions persist amid Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, with the US providing defensive support through intelligence sharing and munitions resupply but no direct offensive actions or Congressional war authorization. Formal declarations of war, last issued during World War II, require explicit Congressional approval under Article I Section 8, a threshold unmet amid current de-escalation signals from all parties despite stalled nuclear diplomacy and ongoing sanctions. President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric signals potential escalation risks post-January 20 inauguration, though traders weigh historical reluctance for full-scale conflict absent major provocation like direct attacks on US assets. No votes, summits, or hearings are scheduled that could trigger movement.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law.
The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$4,266,553End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 12, 2026, 3:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...US-Iran tensions persist amid Israel's October 26 airstrikes on Iranian military sites following Tehran's October 1 missile barrage against Israel, with the US providing defensive support through intelligence sharing and munitions resupply but no direct offensive actions or Congressional war authorization. Formal declarations of war, last issued during World War II, require explicit Congressional approval under Article I Section 8, a threshold unmet amid current de-escalation signals from all parties despite stalled nuclear diplomacy and ongoing sanctions. President-elect Trump's hawkish rhetoric signals potential escalation risks post-January 20 inauguration, though traders weigh historical reluctance for full-scale conflict absent major provocation like direct attacks on US assets. No votes, summits, or hearings are scheduled that could trigger movement.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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