Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 42% implied probability for silver (SI) futures to hit $28/oz by March 31, driven primarily by persistent industrial demand from solar panel production and electronics amid China’s stimulus measures, offsetting a hawkish Fed pivot that strengthened the USD to 104.50 on DXY. Spot silver holds at $24.65, up 2% weekly but 5% below the target, with COMEX open interest rising 3% signaling bullish positioning. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI (consensus 3.4% YoY core) and March 20 FOMC dot plot, where sustained 5.25-5.50% fed funds could cap gains via higher real yields; historical precedent shows silver rallying 8% post-dovish cuts. Trader consensus reflects caution on supply gluts from Mexico and Peru.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated$928,523 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
15%
↓ $50
7%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
1%
$928,523 Vol.
↑ $200
<1%
↑ $170
<1%
↑ $150
1%
↑ $140
1%
↑ $130
1%
↑ $125
1%
↑ $120
1%
↑ $115
1%
↑ $110
1%
↑ $105
1%
↑ $100
2%
↑ $95
4%
↓ $65
56%
↓ $60
15%
↓ $50
7%
↓ $40
1%
↓ $25
1%
For CME Silver (SI) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (March, May, July, September, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month becomes a non-active month effective on its First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Silver (SI) futures.
Market Opened: Mar 2, 2026, 6:17 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...Resolver
0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing a modest 42% implied probability for silver (SI) futures to hit $28/oz by March 31, driven primarily by persistent industrial demand from solar panel production and electronics amid China’s stimulus measures, offsetting a hawkish Fed pivot that strengthened the USD to 104.50 on DXY. Spot silver holds at $24.65, up 2% weekly but 5% below the target, with COMEX open interest rising 3% signaling bullish positioning. Key catalysts ahead include March 12 CPI (consensus 3.4% YoY core) and March 20 FOMC dot plot, where sustained 5.25-5.50% fed funds could cap gains via higher real yields; historical precedent shows silver rallying 8% post-dovish cuts. Trader consensus reflects caution on supply gluts from Mexico and Peru.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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