Market icon
Finance·SPX

S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

Market icon
Finance·SPX

S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1

$322,316 Vol.

Mar 31, 2026
Polymarket

$322,316 Vol.

Polymarket

5% Gain

$22,985 Vol.

1%

4% Gain

$13,044 Vol.

2%

3% Gain

$5,549 Vol.

4%

2% Gain

$14,436 Vol.

20%

3% Loss

$26,070 Vol.

5%

4% Loss

$27,046 Vol.

5%

5% Loss

$174,150 Vol.

1%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.

Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) increases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage gain of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage gain of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).This market will resolve to “Yes” if the price of the S&P 500 Index (SPX) decreases by at least the listed percentage on any single trading day between January 14 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on a given trading day will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on that day to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) on the previous trading day, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The previous day’s closing price will be subtracted from the current day’s closing price, and then that difference will be divided by the previous day’s closing price. If the daily percentage change is negative, it will be considered a loss of that percentage in absolute terms. Daily percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a daily percentage loss of 1.995% would be considered 2.00%, and a daily percentage loss of 1.993% would be considered 1.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.

Polymarket traders are pricing S&P 500 single-day gains and losses in Q1 2025 based on elevated volatility from persistent inflation pressures and Federal Reserve policy signals, with the index logging a peak daily gain of 1.4% on February 12 amid strong bank earnings and a 1.2% loss on March 5 following hotter-than-expected CPI data that tempered rate-cut expectations. Market-implied odds reflect trader consensus on VIX levels averaging 18 during the quarter, influenced by nonfarm payrolls releases and corporate revenue trends across tech and financial sectors. Upcoming Q2 catalysts include the April 30 FOMC meeting and May jobs report, which could influence retrospective Q1 volatility assessments if revisions emerge.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "1% Gain" at 100%, followed by "1% Loss" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1" has generated $322.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1" is "1% Gain" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "1% Loss" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "S&P 500 Single-Day Gains and Losses (%) in Q1" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.