Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, marginally ahead of the $6,000-$6,500 bin at 23%, underscoring tight competition amid macroeconomic crosscurrents from the current index level near 7,259. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—bolstering expectations for sustained Federal Reserve rates around 3.5-3.75%, with futures pricing potential hikes that could pressure valuations already stretched at forward earnings multiples above 22x. Q1 earnings kicked off strongly, with growth outlook firming toward double-digits for the year, yet geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and softening labor momentum (unemployment at 4.3%) heighten recession risks. Key differentiators include June FOMC signals, Q2 earnings trajectory, and inflation prints; upside surprises in AI-driven productivity could favor higher bins, while persistent price pressures tilt toward sub-$6,500 outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated$7,000-$7,500 29%
$6,500-$7,000 25%
<$6,000 21%
$6,000-$6,500 17%
$24,464 Vol.
$24,464 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
21%
$6,000-$6,500
17%
$6,500-$7,000
25%
$7,000-$7,500
27%
$7,500-$8,000
16%
>$8,000
12%
$7,000-$7,500 29%
$6,500-$7,000 25%
<$6,000 21%
$6,000-$6,500 17%
$24,464 Vol.
$24,464 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$15,395 Vol.
21%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,429 Vol.
17%
$6,500-$7,000
$2,308 Vol.
25%
$7,000-$7,500
$1,114 Vol.
27%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,979 Vol.
16%
>$8,000
$2,240 Vol.
12%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, marginally ahead of the $6,000-$6,500 bin at 23%, underscoring tight competition amid macroeconomic crosscurrents from the current index level near 7,259. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—bolstering expectations for sustained Federal Reserve rates around 3.5-3.75%, with futures pricing potential hikes that could pressure valuations already stretched at forward earnings multiples above 22x. Q1 earnings kicked off strongly, with growth outlook firming toward double-digits for the year, yet geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and softening labor momentum (unemployment at 4.3%) heighten recession risks. Key differentiators include June FOMC signals, Q2 earnings trajectory, and inflation prints; upside surprises in AI-driven productivity could favor higher bins, while persistent price pressures tilt toward sub-$6,500 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$24,464End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, marginally ahead of the $6,000-$6,500 bin at 23%, underscoring tight competition amid macroeconomic crosscurrents from the current index level near 7,259. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—bolstering expectations for sustained Federal Reserve rates around 3.5-3.75%, with futures pricing potential hikes that could pressure valuations already stretched at forward earnings multiples above 22x. Q1 earnings kicked off strongly, with growth outlook firming toward double-digits for the year, yet geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and softening labor momentum (unemployment at 4.3%) heighten recession risks. Key differentiators include June FOMC signals, Q2 earnings trajectory, and inflation prints; upside surprises in AI-driven productivity could favor higher bins, while persistent price pressures tilt toward sub-$6,500 outcomes.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$24,464End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 27.5% implied probability to the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, marginally ahead of the $6,000-$6,500 bin at 23%, underscoring tight competition amid macroeconomic crosscurrents from the current index level near 7,259. March 2026 CPI accelerated to 3.3% year-over-year—up from February's 2.4%—bolstering expectations for sustained Federal Reserve rates around 3.5-3.75%, with futures pricing potential hikes that could pressure valuations already stretched at forward earnings multiples above 22x. Q1 earnings kicked off strongly, with growth outlook firming toward double-digits for the year, yet geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and softening labor momentum (unemployment at 4.3%) heighten recession risks. Key differentiators include June FOMC signals, Q2 earnings trajectory, and inflation prints; upside surprises in AI-driven productivity could favor higher bins, while persistent price pressures tilt toward sub-$6,500 outcomes.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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