Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a leading 37.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened risks from Middle East tensions—including U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks—and sustained oil price pressure that could crimp corporate earnings growth amid sticky inflation. With the index at approximately 6,817 after peaking at 7,002 in late January, recent March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted and unemployment steady at 4.3% despite 178,000 jobs added have diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, aligning with CME FedWatch showing limited easing through 2026. JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target underscores vulnerability to a 6,000 support level, while secondary odds favor $7,000-$7,500 (23.5%) per Reuters polls averaging 7,500; watch April CPI release on May 12 and upcoming FOMC for resolution catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated<$6,000 38%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 19%
$6,000-$6,500 17%
$17,829 Vol.
$17,829 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
38%
$6,000-$6,500
18%
$6,500-$7,000
19%
$7,000-$7,500
26%
$7,500-$8,000
10%
>$8,000
8%
<$6,000 38%
$7,000-$7,500 23%
$6,500-$7,000 19%
$6,000-$6,500 17%
$17,829 Vol.
$17,829 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
<$6,000
$11,127 Vol.
38%
$6,000-$6,500
$1,195 Vol.
18%
$6,500-$7,000
$1,373 Vol.
19%
$7,000-$7,500
$857 Vol.
26%
$7,500-$8,000
$1,570 Vol.
10%
>$8,000
$1,708 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a leading 37.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened risks from Middle East tensions—including U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks—and sustained oil price pressure that could crimp corporate earnings growth amid sticky inflation. With the index at approximately 6,817 after peaking at 7,002 in late January, recent March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted and unemployment steady at 4.3% despite 178,000 jobs added have diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, aligning with CME FedWatch showing limited easing through 2026. JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target underscores vulnerability to a 6,000 support level, while secondary odds favor $7,000-$7,500 (23.5%) per Reuters polls averaging 7,500; watch April CPI release on May 12 and upcoming FOMC for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Market Opened: Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Volume
$17,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a leading 37.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened risks from Middle East tensions—including U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks—and sustained oil price pressure that could crimp corporate earnings growth amid sticky inflation. With the index at approximately 6,817 after peaking at 7,002 in late January, recent March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted and unemployment steady at 4.3% despite 178,000 jobs added have diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, aligning with CME FedWatch showing limited easing through 2026. JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target underscores vulnerability to a 6,000 support level, while secondary odds favor $7,000-$7,500 (23.5%) per Reuters polls averaging 7,500; watch April CPI release on May 12 and upcoming FOMC for resolution catalysts.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for S&P 500 (SPX) on the final trading day of December 2026.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Volume
$17,829End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ETResolution Source
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a leading 37.5% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing below $6,000 by year-end 2026, reflecting heightened risks from Middle East tensions—including U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks—and sustained oil price pressure that could crimp corporate earnings growth amid sticky inflation. With the index at approximately 6,817 after peaking at 7,002 in late January, recent March CPI rising 1.1% not seasonally adjusted and unemployment steady at 4.3% despite 178,000 jobs added have diminished expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, aligning with CME FedWatch showing limited easing through 2026. JPMorgan's revised 7,200 target underscores vulnerability to a 6,000 support level, while secondary odds favor $7,000-$7,500 (23.5%) per Reuters polls averaging 7,500; watch April CPI release on May 12 and upcoming FOMC for resolution catalysts.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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