Polymarket traders price a 31% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing between $7,000-$7,500 by year-end 2026, closely trailed by $6,000-$6,500 (25.5%) and $6,500-$7,000 (24.0%), reflecting competitive dynamics amid record Q1 2026 profit margins at 13.4% and blockbuster tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta boosting recent all-time highs near 7,350. However, sentiment is capped by March Fed dot plot signaling limited rate cuts amid sticky 4.3% unemployment and +0.9% CPI, plus Middle East tensions pressuring oil and valuations. Key differentiators include Q2 earnings trajectory, June FOMC guidance, and November midterms, with analyst targets averaging 7,500-7,800 implying upside potential if growth broadens beyond tech.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourQu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ?
Qu'est-ce que le S&P 500 (SPX) fermera à la fin de 2026 ?
7 000–7 500 $ 29%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $ 25%
<6 000 $ 21%
6 000 $ - 6 500 $ 15%
$24,514 Vol.
$24,514 Vol.
<6 000 $
21%
6 000 $ - 6 500 $
34%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $
25%
7 000–7 500 $
28%
7 500 $ - 8 000 $
14%
>8 000 $
14%
7 000–7 500 $ 29%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $ 25%
<6 000 $ 21%
6 000 $ - 6 500 $ 15%
$24,514 Vol.
$24,514 Vol.
<6 000 $
21%
6 000 $ - 6 500 $
34%
6 500 $ - 7 000 $
25%
7 000–7 500 $
28%
7 500 $ - 8 000 $
14%
>8 000 $
14%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Marché ouvert : Jan 6, 2026, 9:22 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the S&P 500 (SPX) "Close" prices available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/history, published under "Historical Prices."
Source de résolution
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EGSPC/historyResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price a 31% implied probability for the S&P 500 closing between $7,000-$7,500 by year-end 2026, closely trailed by $6,000-$6,500 (25.5%) and $6,500-$7,000 (24.0%), reflecting competitive dynamics amid record Q1 2026 profit margins at 13.4% and blockbuster tech earnings from Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta boosting recent all-time highs near 7,350. However, sentiment is capped by March Fed dot plot signaling limited rate cuts amid sticky 4.3% unemployment and +0.9% CPI, plus Middle East tensions pressuring oil and valuations. Key differentiators include Q2 earnings trajectory, June FOMC guidance, and November midterms, with analyst targets averaging 7,500-7,800 implying upside potential if growth broadens beyond tech.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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