Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
$236,502 Vol.
$236,502 Vol.
Jun 30, 2025
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
Created At: Feb 6, 2025, 6:21 PM ET
Volume
$236,502End Date
Jun 30, 2025Created At
Feb 6, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
Will NASA estimate a 5% chance of asteroid hitting Earth?
$236,502 Vol.
$236,502 Vol.
Jun 30, 2025
About
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) estimates that the 2024 YR4 asteroid has a 5% or greater chance of hitting Earth at any point by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NASA, specifically the Center for Near Earth Object Studies chart for Impact Risk Data, available here: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/sentry/.
Look for "(2024 YR4)" under "Object Designation", and check the figure under "Impact Probability (Cumulative)" to find the information that will be used to resolve this market.
Volume
$236,502End Date
Jun 30, 2025Created At
Feb 6, 2025, 6:21 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
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