2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
4th or lower 98.6%
1st hottest <1%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
$452,725 Vol.
$452,725 Vol.
Feb 10, 2026
1st hottest
$69,876 Vol.
<1%
2nd hottest
$64,581 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$158,938 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$159,330 Vol.
99%
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 versus the data points available for all other Januaries on record.
Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for January 2026 versus the data points available for all other Januaries on record.
Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If January 2026 is tied for first, second, or third hottest with another year, it will qualify for the bracket it ties with.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" under the column "Jan" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
If no information for January 2026 is provided by NASA by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Created At: Dec 29, 2025, 4:58 PM ET
Volume
$452,725End Date
Feb 10, 2026Created At
Dec 29, 2025, 4:58 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...2026 January 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?
4th or lower 98.6%
1st hottest <1%
2nd hottest <1%
3rd hottest <1%
$452,725 Vol.
$452,725 Vol.
Feb 10, 2026
1st hottest
$69,876 Vol.
<1%
2nd hottest
$64,581 Vol.
<1%
3rd hottest
$158,938 Vol.
<1%
4th or lower
$159,330 Vol.
99%
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