Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, driven by the absence of follow-through on late March 2026 parliamentary moves. Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, lawmakers fast-tracked a bill for NPT exit and repeal of nuclear deal commitments, but no vote, approval, or official notice has materialized by mid-April. This echoes Iran's repeated threats since 2004 without action, as Tehran weighs isolation risks against IAEA oversight benefits under the treaty. Ongoing IAEA safeguards reports highlight non-compliance but affirm membership, with diplomacy, sanctions, and Supreme Leader fatwas against weapons restraining escalation. Late-breaking military developments or bill passage could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
$113,855 Vol.
$113,855 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$113,855 Vol.
$113,855 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, driven by the absence of follow-through on late March 2026 parliamentary moves. Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, lawmakers fast-tracked a bill for NPT exit and repeal of nuclear deal commitments, but no vote, approval, or official notice has materialized by mid-April. This echoes Iran's repeated threats since 2004 without action, as Tehran weighs isolation risks against IAEA oversight benefits under the treaty. Ongoing IAEA safeguards reports highlight non-compliance but affirm membership, with diplomacy, sanctions, and Supreme Leader fatwas against weapons restraining escalation. Late-breaking military developments or bill passage could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Market Opened: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Volume
$113,855End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, driven by the absence of follow-through on late March 2026 parliamentary moves. Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, lawmakers fast-tracked a bill for NPT exit and repeal of nuclear deal commitments, but no vote, approval, or official notice has materialized by mid-April. This echoes Iran's repeated threats since 2004 without action, as Tehran weighs isolation risks against IAEA oversight benefits under the treaty. Ongoing IAEA safeguards reports highlight non-compliance but affirm membership, with diplomacy, sanctions, and Supreme Leader fatwas against weapons restraining escalation. Late-breaking military developments or bill passage could shift odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$113,855End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus prices an 86% implied probability against Iran withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty before 2027, driven by the absence of follow-through on late March 2026 parliamentary moves. Amid US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian nuclear sites and steel plants, lawmakers fast-tracked a bill for NPT exit and repeal of nuclear deal commitments, but no vote, approval, or official notice has materialized by mid-April. This echoes Iran's repeated threats since 2004 without action, as Tehran weighs isolation risks against IAEA oversight benefits under the treaty. Ongoing IAEA safeguards reports highlight non-compliance but affirm membership, with diplomacy, sanctions, and Supreme Leader fatwas against weapons restraining escalation. Late-breaking military developments or bill passage could shift odds.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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