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Will China invade Taiwan in 2024?

$5,672,418 Vol.

Dec 30, 2024

Yes

0% chance 8%

Source: Polymarket.com

Rules

Additional context

Updated May 30

For the purposes of this market, "Taiwan" refers to the entire territory under the administration of the Republic of China (Taiwan), including any outlying islands.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Taiwan by December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used

Volume

$5,672,418

End Date

Dec 30, 2024

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Comments (169)
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CryptoKen

CryptoKen

3mo ago

No in 2024, but definitely yes before 2027. Xi needs a good reason to stay in power.

RealDeal

RealDeal

3mo ago

Lol. If they do, that will be the end of China ccp. Don’t be naive. China won’t do it, they’re not that stupid

fuck ya

kuuuujyli

kuuuujyli

3mo ago

yes

GCK

GCK

3mo ago

this is not fucking happen in 100 years

fa59

3mo ago

Obviously no

ounoun1

3mo ago

No

Obviously this is impossible hhhhhh

yes

Obviously this is impossible hhh

JiuLuo

4mo ago

Unfortunately, the success of this bet has nothing to do with TW. To be honest, TW is like China intentionally giving the testicles to the United States. It may seem like a pain point for China, but in reality, it is a strategic misguidance. However, all of this has nothing to do with TW, just like a Chinese saying - 'Killing you has nothing to do with you.' TW is like an egg between China and the United States. Who cares if this egg comes from a farm or the wild?

80c2

4mo ago

NO NO NO

china, russia - losers

GilesH11H

4mo ago

taiwan,ukraine - colony

diddydreas

diddydreas

4mo ago

china numba one

Master-bettor

taiwan numba wan

pica42

4mo ago

china num one , danshi ni meiyou qian

Polphoria

Polphoria

4mo ago

It never gonna happen because of the protection to Taiwan from United States until China becomes a democratic country

GRRRRRBR99

GRRRRRBR99

4mo ago

Mystikka

Mystikka

4mo ago

Brother china does this every year every time

GRRRRRBR99

GRRRRRBR99

4mo ago

Now everyone is looking at middle east and Trump and Christmas, China have the opportunity to take control over Taiwan, as long as there is the transition in the USA.

Polphoria

Polphoria

4mo ago

But the question is “when”?

B926

4mo ago

China said this over 70years 😁

jiajiatwo

4mo ago

There is only one China

babylina

4mo ago

Taiwan should belong to China, so it shouldn’t be considered an invasion.

Polphoria

Polphoria

4mo ago

Taiwan is a independent country that has their own law ,systems and government although it officially named as Republic of China

tump7

4mo ago

Obviously this is impossible

GRRRRRBR99

GRRRRRBR99

4mo ago

it could happend in 2 - 7 years

nisisinet

4mo ago

no

annawen

4mo ago

China loves peace

ThrizzaM

4mo ago

Taiwan No.1 Let's goooooooooooooooo!!!!!!

RandomJake

4mo ago

China is invading

RandomJake

4mo ago

what happened

darrenchk1

4mo ago

I am fucked

Chims

Chims

4mo ago

just buy more…

Polphoria

Polphoria

4mo ago

Free money bruh

gfoksm

4mo ago

Unity is unstoppable

Mekon

4mo ago

Peaceful reunification is inevitable

RealDeal

RealDeal

4mo ago

bruh, Chinaman aint got the balls aight? Chinese commies are only good at abusing their own people. GG to their economy. Let them keep making their $250 usd wages

SeanEleven

4mo ago

warmongers pls buy more YES.

SeanEleven

4mo ago

Taiwan watching Chinese carrier movements as sources say war games may start this weekend. https://www.yahoo.com/news/taiwan-watching-chinese-carrier-movements-043320735.html

Chims

Chims

4mo ago

only war games will happen

greats

greats

4mo ago

Fuck you, Taiwan is originally China’s territory, what is an invasion? Fuck you.

Free money!!!!!!

Master-bettor

hmm.... maybe!

Skyruin

5mo ago

Would still buy No even if the deadline is extended to 2025

Yourbestbet

1 drone hit is not enough?

Several massacres happened in China recently due to frustration and anger about economy and lack of free speech. Things would go uncontrollable if xijinping decides to invade Taiwan now.

Ratami

5mo ago

invade? Should be changed to regression

Intuition

4mo ago

Secession a human right

Hickean

5mo ago

One Country, Two Systems is the Bottom Line

RealDeal

RealDeal

4mo ago

Look at Hong Kong. lol. No, two countries. bottom line.

MageGold

5mo ago

invade?lol taiwan most under their control

Outcome: No