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Politics·Canada

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Market icon
Politics·Canada

Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?

Dec 31

Dec 31

57% chance
Polymarket

$150,827 Vol.

57% chance
Polymarket

$150,827 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists' citizen petition drive to trigger an independence referendum has surged trader optimism, with organizers claiming on March 30 to have met the signature threshold for a constitutional vote, prompting expectations of an official scheduling announcement soon. Premier Danielle Smith's government announced a separate October 19 referendum on nine questions, including constitutional reforms like equalization payments and Senate changes, amplifying sovereignty tensions amid UCP MLA endorsements and recent legislative proposals limiting citizen initiatives during elections. Polls indicate majority opposition to actual separation but openness to a vote, while Quebec's Parti Québécois pledges a post-2026 election referendum if victorious. These developments explain the 56.5% implied probability for Yes, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on imminent scheduling before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$150,827
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Alberta separatists' citizen petition drive to trigger an independence referendum has surged trader optimism, with organizers claiming on March 30 to have met the signature threshold for a constitutional vote, prompting expectations of an official scheduling announcement soon. Premier Danielle Smith's government announced a separate October 19 referendum on nine questions, including constitutional reforms like equalization payments and Senate changes, amplifying sovereignty tensions amid UCP MLA endorsements and recent legislative proposals limiting citizen initiatives during elections. Polls indicate majority opposition to actual separation but openness to a vote, while Quebec's Parti Québécois pledges a post-2026 election referendum if victorious. These developments explain the 56.5% implied probability for Yes, reflecting skin-in-the-game consensus on imminent scheduling before 2027.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$150,853
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 2:24 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any provincial government in Canada officially schedules a referendum concerning the province’s potential secession from Canada, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Any referendum that establishes the province's desire for independence, sets a framework for independence, or establishes independence from Canada will qualify, whether the referendum is binding or non-binding. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 57% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 57¢, the market collectively assigns a 57% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" has generated $150.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" is 57% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 57% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.