Who will win the debate according to polls?
$1,577,415 Vol.
Kamala
Rules
Additional context
Updated Sep 12
As per the rules, this market resolves based on the Ipsos/538 post-debate poll. Ipsos did a poll without 538, which suffices for this market. According to the poll, Kamala Harris won the debate (https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-maintains-slight-edge-over-trump-among-voters-nationwide). Therefore this market should resolve to "Kamala".
This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the Ipsos/538 release will not be considered for this market.
If this debate is cancelled, otherwise rescheduled, or does not take place by September 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos/538 does not release a poll within a week of the debate (currently September 17, 11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve based on polls from YouGov. If YouGov also hasn't released a poll within a week of the debate, this market will resolve to "50-50".
Volume
$1,577,415
End Date
Sep 24, 2024
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Kamala
No dispute
Final outcome: Kamala
$1,577,415 Vol.
Who will win the debate according to polls?
Kamala
About
Additional context
Updated Sep 12
As per the rules, this market resolves based on the Ipsos/538 post-debate poll. Ipsos did a poll without 538, which suffices for this market. According to the poll, Kamala Harris won the debate (https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/harris-maintains-slight-edge-over-trump-among-voters-nationwide). Therefore this market should resolve to "Kamala".
This market will resolve to whichever candidate has a higher percentage than the other for the question regarding who performed better in the debate, or who won the debate. Other portions of the Ipsos/538 release will not be considered for this market.
If this debate is cancelled, otherwise rescheduled, or does not take place by September 17, 2024, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50.
This market will resolve according to the results of Ipsos/538's first opinion poll over who won or performed better in the debate released after its conclusion. If Ipsos/538 does not release a poll within a week of the debate (currently September 17, 11:59 PM ET), this market will resolve based on polls from YouGov. If YouGov also hasn't released a poll within a week of the debate, this market will resolve to "50-50".
Volume
$1,577,415
End Date
Sep 24, 2024
Resolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: Kamala
No dispute
Final outcome: Kamala
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Beware of external links.