Name: Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?
Start: 2024-11-06T18:31:08.036083Z
End: 2025-06-30T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on who Donald Trump will appoint as his Treasury secretary.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Howard Lutnick for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Howard Lutnick

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Jamie Dimon for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jamie Dimon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates John Paulson for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

John Paulson

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Larry Kudlow for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Kudlow

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Scott Bessent for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Scott Bessent

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Robert Lighthizer for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Robert Lighthizer

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Bill Hagerty for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bill Hagerty

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Jay Clayton for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jay Clayton

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Steven Mnuchin for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Steven Mnuchin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Kevin Warsh for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kevin Warsh

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Marc Rowan for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Marc Rowan

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump nominates Larry Fink for US Treasury Secretary by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first nomination for Treasury Secretary - if Trump nominates another person first to be US Treasury Secretary, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Larry Fink

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Steve Witkoff be next National Security Advisor?

Donald Trump recently announced he was firing Lisa D. Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-lisa-cook-trump-6fca3d2fbb54ba204cc91398e6a7b020

This market will resolve to according the next individual Donald Trump nominates or announces as a nominee to become a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors between August 26, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If Donald Trump does not announce nominee for Fed Governor within this market's timeframe, it will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".

This market will resolve based on the first individual trump nominates within the established timeframe.

The announcement of a specific nominee will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether that individual is later officially nominated.

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Eric Adams to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Laura Loomer to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Laura Loomer join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially appoints, or announces the appointment of a special prosecutor, special counsel, or other independent prosecutor to investigate matters related to Jeffrey Epstein by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
 
To qualify, the appointee must be explicitly tasked with investigating the Epstein case. A public statement from Trump, the White House, or the Department of Justice confirming the appointment will be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution regardless of when the appointment goes into effect. 

General statements of intent without a named appointee will not qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be official announcements from the Trump administration or a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump appoints special prosecutor for Epstein case in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources.

Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse James Talarico for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence confirming that Donald Trump is Satoshi Nakamoto, the pseudonymous creator of Bitcoin, is made public by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Qualifying evidence includes, but is not limited to verified documentation, blockchain evidence, or other definitive evidence.

Unverified or anonymous claims, speculation, memes, jokes, sarcasm, or unsubstantiated reports will not qualify.

Unsubstantiated claims made by Trump will not alone qualify. 

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting and official information from Donald Trump.

Trump confirmed to be Satoshi by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Democratic Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democratic Party sources.

Any replacement of the democratic nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal jurisdiction of the United States and/or the District of Columbia formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any former member(s) of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This includes the following individuals: Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney, Zoe Lofgren, Adam Schiff, Pete Aguilar, Stephanie Murphy, Jamie Raskin, Elaine Luria, Adam Kinzinger

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump charges Member of January 6 committee? 

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that creates a ‘DOGE dividend’ by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any cash transfer, tax credit, or other comparable financial transfer which is referred to as a DOGE dividend, or which is otherwise directly funded by savings created by the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) will qualify.  

Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump create a DOGE dividend in 2025? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Chip Roy be the Republican nominee for TX-21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

Donald Trump is scheduled to host a cabinet meeting on December 2, 2025.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about the named, scheduled event December 2, 2025 (https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/topic/calendar/). Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 2, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Hell" 4+ times during Cabinet Meeting on December 2?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) between October 1, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Trump declares another national emergency by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Adam Kinzinger serves any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Adam Kinzinger?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Ryan Salame in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 23, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Fed cuts twice
- Trump announces someone as next Fed Chair
- Powell says “Trump” during October Press Conference
- Lisa Cook is out as Fed Governor

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p1.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p2.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/p3.png


Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Howard Lutnick
$1,147,464 Vol.
No

Jamie Dimon
$276,654 Vol.
No

John Paulson
$328,048 Vol.
No

Larry Kudlow
$329,320 Vol.
No

Scott Bessent
$982,379 Vol.
Yes

Robert Lighthizer
$485,224 Vol.
No

Bill Hagerty
$526,800 Vol.
No

Jay Clayton
$188,693 Vol.
No

Steven Mnuchin
$572,917 Vol.
No

Kevin Warsh
$566,209 Vol.
No

Marc Rowan
$386,665 Vol.
No

Larry Fink
$272,445 Vol.
No

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Rules

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

About

Related

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Howard Lutnick$1,147,464 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jamie Dimon$276,654 Vol.Nocircle xmark

John Paulson$328,048 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Larry Kudlow$329,320 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Scott Bessent$982,379 Vol.Yescircle check

Robert Lighthizer$485,224 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Bill Hagerty$526,800 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jay Clayton$188,693 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Steven Mnuchin$572,917 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Kevin Warsh$566,209 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Marc Rowan$386,665 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Larry Fink$272,445 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Rules

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

Market Context

Who will Trump pick for Treasury Secretary?

About

Related

Howard Lutnick
$1,147,464 Vol.
No

Jamie Dimon
$276,654 Vol.
No

John Paulson
$328,048 Vol.
No

Larry Kudlow
$329,320 Vol.
No

Scott Bessent
$982,379 Vol.
Yes

Robert Lighthizer
$485,224 Vol.
No

Bill Hagerty
$526,800 Vol.
No

Jay Clayton
$188,693 Vol.
No

Steven Mnuchin
$572,917 Vol.
No

Kevin Warsh
$566,209 Vol.
No

Marc Rowan
$386,665 Vol.
No

Larry Fink
$272,445 Vol.
No