Paramount Skydance leads trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability following its $110 billion superior offer that outbid Netflix in late February 2026, prompting a formal merger agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery and a scheduled shareholder vote on April 23. Netflix and Comcast bids faded after withdrawing, pricing their outcomes near zero amid the bidding war resolution. The 16% on none by June 30, 2027 reflects antitrust scrutiny from the DOJ, theater owner opposition, and political pushback against media consolidation, with no fast-track approval signaled. Regulatory clearance remains the key hurdle before a potential Q3 close, though ticking fees incentivize timely resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedParamount 80%
None by June 30, 2027 16%
Netflix <1%
Comcast <1%
$972,577 Vol.
$972,577 Vol.
Paramount
80%
None by June 30, 2027
16%
Netflix
<1%
Comcast
<1%
Paramount 80%
None by June 30, 2027 16%
Netflix <1%
Comcast <1%
$972,577 Vol.
$972,577 Vol.
Paramount
80%
None by June 30, 2027
16%
Netflix
<1%
Comcast
<1%
Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify.
Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify.
If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027".
Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.
Market Opened: Dec 8, 2025, 1:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Transactions that involve only Warner Bros. Discovery's linear television networks, news channels, or other non-studio, non-streaming assets, without also transferring control of its studios and streaming businesses, will not qualify.
Announcements of non-finalized arrangements — including, the currently announced Netflix agreement to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery’s studios and streaming businesses — will not qualify.
If no entity acquires control of Warner Bros. Discovery's studios and streaming businesses by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "None by June 30 2027".
Resolution will be based on by a consensus of reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Paramount Skydance leads trader consensus at 79.5% implied probability following its $110 billion superior offer that outbid Netflix in late February 2026, prompting a formal merger agreement with Warner Bros. Discovery and a scheduled shareholder vote on April 23. Netflix and Comcast bids faded after withdrawing, pricing their outcomes near zero amid the bidding war resolution. The 16% on none by June 30, 2027 reflects antitrust scrutiny from the DOJ, theater owner opposition, and political pushback against media consolidation, with no fast-track approval signaled. Regulatory clearance remains the key hurdle before a potential Q3 close, though ticking fees incentivize timely resolution.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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