Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 23.3%

Pam Bondi 16.1%

Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%

None before 2027 10.4%

$2,357,375 Vol.

Rules

This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.

An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.

If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.
Volume
$2,357,375
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”. An announcement of an individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the resignation/removal takes effect. If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name comes first alphabetically. For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market. An individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role. If a candidate who is not already listed, assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered to have left, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reopening may also be used.

Beware of external links.

Market icon

Who will be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet?

Dec 31

Kristi Noem 23.3%

Pam Bondi 16.1%

Tulsi Gabbard 10.8%

None before 2027 10.4%

$2,357,375 Vol.

Kristi Noem

$235,152 Vol.

23%

Pam Bondi

$410,085 Vol.

16%

Tulsi Gabbard

$37,079 Vol.

11%

None before 2027

$155,066 Vol.

10%

Lori Chavez-DeRemer

$110,013 Vol.

10%

Chris Wright

$24,539 Vol.

5%

Stephen Miran

$25,857 Vol.

4%

Howard Lutnick

$113,919 Vol.

3%

Pete Hegseth

$113,829 Vol.

3%

Marco Rubio

$81,991 Vol.

3%

Susie Wiles

$52,927 Vol.

3%

Linda McMahon

$25,009 Vol.

1%

J.D. Vance

$78,581 Vol.

1%

Robert F. Kennedy Jr.

$21,616 Vol.

1%

Kelly Loeffler

$57,024 Vol.

1%

Scott Turner

$114,047 Vol.

1%

Scott Bessent

$31,649 Vol.

1%

John Ratcliffe

$127,633 Vol.

1%

Mike Waltz

$47,586 Vol.

1%

Brooke Rollins

$19,868 Vol.

1%

Lee Zeldin

$59,972 Vol.

1%

Jamieson Greer

$74,344 Vol.

1%

Sean Duffy

$73,111 Vol.

1%

Doug Burgum

$108,563 Vol.

1%

Doug Collins

$108,957 Vol.

1%

Russell T. Vought

$48,959 Vol.

<1%

About

Volume
$2,357,375
End Date
Dec 31, 2026
Created At
Dec 5, 2025, 5:00 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...

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Beware of external links.