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Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?

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Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?

AD (Democratic Alliance) 100.0%

IL (Liberal Initiative) <1%

PS (Socialist Party) <1%

CH (CHEGA) <1%

Polymarket

$3,519,866 Vol.

AD (Democratic Alliance) 100.0%

IL (Liberal Initiative) <1%

PS (Socialist Party) <1%

CH (CHEGA) <1%

Polymarket

$3,519,866 Vol.

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IL (Liberal Initiative)

$290,904 Vol.

No

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PS (Socialist Party)

$824,674 Vol.

No

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AD (Democratic Alliance)

$611,128 Vol.

Yes

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CH (CHEGA)

$606,686 Vol.

No

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BE (Left Bloc)

$271,506 Vol.

No

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PAN (People-Animals-Nature Party)

$263,210 Vol.

No

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L (Livre)

$330,488 Vol.

No

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CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition)

$321,270 Vol.

No

A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature.

This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Portugal's Assembly of the Republic as a result of the upcoming election.

If voting in the next Portugal election for the Assembly of the Republic does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Portugal’s government (e.g. via https://www.portaldoeleitor.pt/en/Pages/default.aspx).

Note:

The AD (Democratic Alliance), composed of PSD (Social Democratic Party), CDS–PP (People's Party) and PPM (People's Monarchist Party) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for AD (Democratic Alliance) will be assigned to the PSD (Social Democratic Party).

The CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), composed of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition) will be assigned to PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) .
Volume
$3,519,866
End Date
May 18, 2025
Market Opened
Mar 17, 2025, 5:32 PM ET
A snap legislative election will take place in Portugal on 18 May 2025 to elect members of the Assembly of the Republic to the 17th Legislature. This market will resolve to the political party that controls the most seats in Portugal's Assembly of the Republic as a result of the upcoming election. If voting in the next Portugal election for the Assembly of the Republic does not occur by February 28, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie between this party and any other for the most seats held, this market will resolve in favor of the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats held by the named party or coalition. This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Portugal’s government (e.g. via https://www.portaldoeleitor.pt/en/Pages/default.aspx). Note: The AD (Democratic Alliance), composed of PSD (Social Democratic Party), CDS–PP (People's Party) and PPM (People's Monarchist Party) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for AD (Democratic Alliance) will be assigned to the PSD (Social Democratic Party). The CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition), composed of the Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) will be considered a single party, NOT a coalition for the purpose of this market. If this alliance breaks up prior to the election, the market for CDU (Unitary Democratic Coalition) will be assigned to PCP (Portuguese Communist Party) .

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 8 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "AD (Democratic Alliance)" at 100%, followed by "IL (Liberal Initiative)" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?" has generated $3.5 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Mar 17, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?," browse the 8 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?" is "AD (Democratic Alliance)" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "IL (Liberal Initiative)" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which Party wins most seats in Portugal election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.