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icon for Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

icon for Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?
Politics·Israel

Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?

Jan 1, 2027

Jan 1, 2027

$760,105 Vol.

Dec 31, 2026
Polymarket

$760,105 Vol.

Polymarket
icon for New Zealand

New Zealand

$124,536 Vol.

10%

icon for Japan

Japan

$48,996 Vol.

9%

icon for The Netherlands

The Netherlands

$62,747 Vol.

9%

icon for Italy

Italy

$28,035 Vol.

7%

icon for Belgium

Belgium

$80,008 Vol.

7%

icon for Finland

Finland

$38,555 Vol.

7%

icon for Germany

Germany

$130,094 Vol.

5%

icon for Greece

Greece

$46,785 Vol.

9%

icon for Austria

Austria

$173,415 Vol.

4%

icon for Israel

Israel

$297 Vol.

4%

icon for United States

United States

$26,638 Vol.

3%

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.A wave of formal recognitions by Western nations in September 2025, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, France, and several others during a France-Saudi Arabia co-chaired UN conference on the two-state solution, raised the total to roughly 157 of 193 UN members. These moves carried conditions such as Palestinian Authority reforms, hostage releases, Hamas exclusion from governance, and demilitarization. One year later, reports highlight limited on-the-ground effects amid continued Israeli operations, settler violence in the West Bank, and Palestinian Authority weakening. Remaining holdouts, concentrated among certain NATO and G20 partners, cite alliance considerations and requirements for negotiated outcomes. Future catalysts before 2027 could include UN General Assembly sessions, ceasefire progress, or shifts in Israeli policy.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$760,105
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.A wave of formal recognitions by Western nations in September 2025, including the United Kingdom, Canada, Australia, France, and several others during a France-Saudi Arabia co-chaired UN conference on the two-state solution, raised the total to roughly 157 of 193 UN members. These moves carried conditions such as Palestinian Authority reforms, hostage releases, Hamas exclusion from governance, and demilitarization. One year later, reports highlight limited on-the-ground effects amid continued Israeli operations, settler violence in the West Bank, and Palestinian Authority weakening. Remaining holdouts, concentrated among certain NATO and G20 partners, cite alliance considerations and requirements for negotiated outcomes. Future catalysts before 2027 could include UN General Assembly sessions, ceasefire progress, or shifts in Israeli policy.

This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET.

An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.This market will resolve based on the countries that officially recognize Palestine as a state by December 31, 2026, 11:59pm ET. An announcement of intentions will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." Only a government's formal recognition of the State of Palestine will count toward a “Yes” resolution for this market. The primary resolution source for this market will be official government information. However, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$760,105
End Date
Jan 1, 2027
Market Opened
Nov 5, 2025, 11:52 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 11 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "New Zealand" at 10%, followed by "Japan" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 10¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" has generated $760.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 5, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?," browse the 11 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" is "New Zealand" at 10%, meaning the market assigns a 10% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Japan" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which countries will recognize Palestine before 2027?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.