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Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?

Market icon

Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?

$98,486 Vol.

Mar 31, 2025
Polymarket

$98,486 Vol.

Polymarket

Sinaloa Cartel

$13,855 Vol.

Yes

CJNG

$7,298 Vol.

Yes

Gulf Cartel

$13,484 Vol.

Yes

Los Zetas

$39,721 Vol.

Yes

Tren de Aragua

$11,844 Vol.

Yes

MS-13

$12,284 Vol.

Yes

On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the executive order "Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists," directing the U.S. government to assess and potentially designate certain cartels under these classifications. (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designating-cartels-and-other-organizations-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-and-specially-designated-global-terrorists/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates the listed cartel as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be an official announcement from the U.S. State Department, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$98,486
End Date
Mar 31, 2025
Market Opened
Jan 24, 2025, 4:05 PM ET
On January 20, 2025, President Donald Trump signed the executive order "Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists," directing the U.S. government to assess and potentially designate certain cartels under these classifications. (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/01/designating-cartels-and-other-organizations-as-foreign-terrorist-organizations-and-specially-designated-global-terrorists/) This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. government formally designates the listed cartel as a Foreign Terrorist Organization and/or as a Specially Designated Global Terrorist (SDGT) by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source will be an official announcement from the U.S. State Department, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 6 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Sinaloa Cartel" at 100%, followed by "CJNG" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?" has generated $98.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 24, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?," browse the 6 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?" is "Sinaloa Cartel" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "CJNG" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Which cartels will Trump list as terrorists?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.