Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

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When will Israel first raid Gaza aid flotilla?

$1,170,142 Vol.

October 1 100.0%

September 28 <1%

September 29 <1%

September 30 <1%

OUTCOMERESULT

Rules

The Global Sumud Flotilla, including its partner initiatives, announced that it will launch a Flotilla towards Gaza from Spanish ports on August 31 and Tunisian ports on September 4. More information can be found here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/8/31/gaza-humanitarian-flotilla-departs-barcelona-to-break-israeli-siege

This market will resolve according to the date ET Israeli military or law enforcement personnel first physically board any vessel participating in the initiative, without authorization or consent from the crew or organizers.

This market will resolve to "No raid" if no qualifying raid is conducted by October 10, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

Escorting, shadowing, or issuing warnings without boarding does not count. Boarding with the crew’s consent also will not count.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$1,170,142
End Date
Oct 10, 2025
Created At
Sep 28, 2025, 7:24 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: No

No dispute

Final outcome: No

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Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$1,170,142 Vol.

Market icon

When will Israel first raid Gaza aid flotilla?

October 1 100.0%

September 28 <1%

September 29 <1%

September 30 <1%

September 28

$2,256 Vol.

No

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September 29

$3,293 Vol.

No

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September 30

$141,246 Vol.

No

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October 1

$651,593 Vol.

Yes

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October 2

$78,201 Vol.

No

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October 3

$51,454 Vol.

No

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October 4

$31,076 Vol.

No

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October 5

$32,587 Vol.

No

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October 6

$38,041 Vol.

No

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October 7

$21,795 Vol.

No

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October 8

$20,057 Vol.

No

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October 9

$19,900 Vol.

No

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October 10

$19,423 Vol.

No

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No Raid

$59,221 Vol.

No

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About

Volume
$1,170,142
End Date
Oct 10, 2025
Created At
Sep 28, 2025, 7:24 PM UTC
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Beware of external links.