$284,727 Vol.
Oct 4, 2024
Nuclear
$111,945 Vol.
No
Oil/Gas
$140,587 Vol.
No
Tehran
$32,196 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between September 30 and October 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel carries out a kinetic military strike against any Iranian facility used for the development, enrichment, storage, or processing of nuclear material or technology, including reactors, enrichment facilities, uranium mines, and research centers located on Iranian soil, between September 30 and October 4, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
This includes, but is not limited to drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Israeli operatives on the ground. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.
Israeli missile and drone strikes which are shot down or miss their targets will not be considered for this market.
The resolution source for this market is official statements from the Israeli and Iranian governments, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Note: Cyber attacks will not qualify, even if they have kinetic effects.
Created At: Oct 1, 2024, 3:16 PM ET
Volume
$284,727End Date
Oct 4, 2024Created At
Oct 1, 2024, 3:16 PM ETResolver
0x6A9D22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
$284,727 Vol.
Nuclear
$111,945 Vol.
No
Oil/Gas
$140,587 Vol.
No
Tehran
$32,196 Vol.
No
Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions
"What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Nuclear" at 0%, followed by "Oil/Gas" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.
As of today, "What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?" has generated $284.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 1, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.
To trade on "What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.
This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?" is "Nuclear" at just 0%, with "Oil/Gas" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.
The resolution rules for "What will Israel target in Iran by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.



Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions