Name: What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)
Start: 2025-04-18T22:54:38.798691Z
End: 2025-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

This market will resolve based on the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) as of the final market close price in 2025.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

The resolution source will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

<$3200

$3200-$3300

$3300-$3400

$3400-$3500

$3500-$3600

$3600-$3700

$3700-$3800

$3800-$3900

$3900-$4000

>$4000

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

This market will resolve to "Gold" if, between October 8, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 per troy ounce during regular trading hours before Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds that same price according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT.

This market will resolve to "ETH" if, within that same timeframe, Ethereum (ETH) reaches or exceeds $5,000.00 according to the final "Close" price of all Binance 1 minute candles for ETH/USDT before the price of the COMEX Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) reaches or exceeds that same price per troy ounce during regular trading hours.

If neither Gold nor Ethereum reach $5,000.00 within this market's timeframe, or if they reach that price at the exact same moment, this market will resolve 50-50.

The resolution source for Gold prices will be COMEX trading data for the Gold Continuous Contract (https://www.google.com/finance/quote/GCW00:COMEX).

The resolution source Ethereum prices is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar.

Note: This market's resolution is based specifically on the listed resolution sources, not according to other sources or spot markets.

First to 5k: Gold or ETH?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the percentage change for BTC/USDT is higher than the percentage change for XAU/USD for 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is information from TradingView, specifically the charts for BTC/USDT (https://fr.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=BINANCE%3ABTCUSDT) and XAU/USD (https://www.tradingview.com/chart/?symbol=OANDA%3AXAUUSD). The change value displayed at the top of the graph for the “12M” candle dated “01 Jan ’26” will be used once the data for both relevant candles are finalized.

If the change is exactly equal according to the resolution source for the specified candles, this market will resolve 50-50.

Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total crypto liquidations event exceeds the highest liquidation amount ever recorded ($19.16B) at any point in 2026, as tracked by CoinGlass. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be CoinGlass liquidation data (https://www.coinglass.com/LiquidationData), specifically the “Top 10 Crypto Liquidation Events of All Time.”

If CoinGlass data becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting will be used.


Record crypto liquidation in 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1-minute candle for Monero (XMRUSDT) between Jan 5, 2026, 17:25 and December 31, 2026, 23:59 ET has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the XMRUSDT “High” prices available at:
https://www.binance.com/en/futures/xmrusdt with the chart set to “1m” (one-minute candles) on the top bar.

Only the Binance XMRUSDT price feed will be used.
Prices from other exchanges, trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered.

Will Monero hit $1000 in 2026?

This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if the Milady floor price reaches 2ETH or higher at any point between December 31, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be NftPriceFloor, specifically the "Milady price chart" available at https://nftpricefloor.com/milady, with "1M" selected on the top bar. The price will be determined based on the value shown when hovering over the chart.

Only data from NFTPriceFloor will be used to resolve this market. Prices from other data providers or NFT marketplaces will not be considered.

Will Milady floor price reach 2 ETH before 2027?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between August 5, 2025 at 10:30 AM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period.

If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect less than $100b in revenue in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, at any point between this market’s creation and market close on the final day of trading prior to or on the listed date, any 1-minute candle for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) shows a final "High" price equal to or above 50,000. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

All prices recorded during regular trading hours of the primary exchange for the instrument, as reflected in Yahoo Finance's 1-minute interval ("1m") data, will be considered.

Periods when the market is officially closed (e.g., holidays or maintenance breaks) will not be considered.

All times referenced are local to the primary exchange on which the index trades.

The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance — specifically, the 1-minute interval ("1m") chart data for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) available at https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EDJI/.

DOW hits 50k by February 27, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and March 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the Treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Will the 10-year treasury yield hit 4.3% by March 31?

his market will resolve to “Yes” if the average monthly Ethereum gas price is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title by December 31, 2026 ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the dashboard available at https://dune.com/nibty/eth-gas-prices, using the “mean_gas” value displayed in the “Gas Prices Monthly Average” tab.

This market will resolve as soon as a finalized average monthly gas price shown on the dashboard is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title, or once the value for December 2026 is finalized and no earlier finalized monthly value has met or exceeded that threshold.

A monthly value will be considered finalized once the next monthly data point is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve based on other reliable crypto data sources.

Will the average monthly Ethereum gas price hit 5 Gwei before 2027?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by greater than the listed percent over the 12 month period ending with any month in 2026 according to the monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reports. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index reports released for each month of 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm). Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the December 2026 report is issued. Once the December 2026 report is issued, any revisions to previously released CPI figures will not be counted toward this market's resolution. If the CPI report for December 2026 is not issued by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on CPI figures which have already been made available by the BLS.

Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly BLS CPI news release which reports inflation over 12 month periods to only one decimal point (e.g. 2.9%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.

Will inflation reach more than 3% in 2026?

This market will resolve to the lower price in the title if Bitcoin’s price dips to that level or below before it hits the higher title price between January 2, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. It will resolve to the higher price in the title if Bitcoin’s price first reaches that level or above before it dips to the lower title price during the same period.

If neither price level is reached within the market timeframe, the market will resolve 50–50.

The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "High" and "Low" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with “1m” and “Candles” selected on the top bar.

Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $100k first?

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). 

The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter.

Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%)

If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price.

If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket.

The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).

Will the percentage change in the S&P 500 in Q1 2026 be less than 0%?

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

<$3200
$353,083 Vol.
No

$3200-$3300
$377,592 Vol.
No

$3300-$3400
$297,257 Vol.
No

$3400-$3500
$237,983 Vol.
No

$3500-$3600
$245,979 Vol.
No

$3600-$3700
$323,880 Vol.
No

$3700-$3800
$262,018 Vol.
No

$3800-$3900
$259,535 Vol.
No

$3900-$4000
$357,031 Vol.
No

>$4000
$1,263,823 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Rules

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

About

Related

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

<$3200$353,083 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3200-$3300$377,592 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3300-$3400$297,257 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3400-$3500$237,983 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3500-$3600$245,979 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3600-$3700$323,880 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3700-$3800$262,018 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3800-$3900$259,535 Vol.Nocircle xmark

$3900-$4000$357,031 Vol.Nocircle xmark

>$4000$1,263,823 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Rules

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

Market Context

What price will gold close at in 2025? ($3200-4000)

About

Related

<$3200
$353,083 Vol.
No

$3200-$3300
$377,592 Vol.
No

$3300-$3400
$297,257 Vol.
No

$3400-$3500
$237,983 Vol.
No

$3500-$3600
$245,979 Vol.
No

$3600-$3700
$323,880 Vol.
No

$3700-$3800
$262,018 Vol.
No

$3800-$3900
$259,535 Vol.
No

$3900-$4000
$357,031 Vol.
No

>$4000
$1,263,823 Vol.
Yes