**GBP/USD trades near 1.325 amid diverging central bank paths and UK fiscal pressures.** The Federal Reserve’s September hike to a 3.75-4.00% target range, with markets pricing further increases toward 4.1% by year-end, has widened the rate advantage over the Bank of England’s 3.75% Bank Rate, supporting the dollar and capping sterling gains. Hawkish BoE votes and November hike odds near 80-90% provide some floor, yet elevated UK gilt yields and the October 28 Autumn Budget introduce downside risks tied to borrowing costs and fiscal credibility. Upcoming US CPI data, UK inflation releases, and the BoE’s November decision will shape near-term implied probabilities, while the pair’s decline from early-2026 highs near 1.38 reflects persistent policy and growth differentials.