Recent EUR/USD weakness near 1.12 stems primarily from widening growth and policy divergences, with U.S. GDP tracking toward 3.7% annualized in Q3 amid resilient data, while euro-area expansion lags and French fiscal strains—debt near 119% of GDP plus political uncertainty—elevate risk premia on the single currency. The Fed’s relatively hawkish tilt, supported by elevated Treasury yields above 5.3% and a DXY near 102, outweighs ECB tightening, though softer U.S. PCE and labor figures have tempered near-term hike odds. Geopolitical oil spikes add further dollar support. Key near-term catalysts include today’s FOMC minutes, upcoming U.S. CPI, and late-October central bank decisions that could shift rate differentials and trader positioning into year-end.