Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s long tenure since 2009, prior service as Virginia governor, and strong fundraising position have anchored trader consensus around his reelection. Virginia has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and nonpartisan forecasters across outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who prevailed in the August primary, has struggled to gain statewide traction in a state with a Democratic lean. The implied probability reflected in current pricing could shift only with major late-cycle developments such as a significant health event, unforeseen scandal, or abrupt national political realignment within the remaining weeks before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVirginia Senate Election Winner
Virginia Senate Election Winner
$23,648 Vol.
$23,648 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mark Warner (D)
98%
Bert Mizusawa (R)
2%
$23,648 Vol.
$23,648 Vol.
Nov 2, 2026
Mark Warner (D)
$16,193 Vol.
98%
Bert Mizusawa (R)
$7,455 Vol.
2%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s long tenure since 2009, prior service as Virginia governor, and strong fundraising position have anchored trader consensus around his reelection. Virginia has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and nonpartisan forecasters across outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who prevailed in the August primary, has struggled to gain statewide traction in a state with a Democratic lean. The implied probability reflected in current pricing could shift only with major late-cycle developments such as a significant health event, unforeseen scandal, or abrupt national political realignment within the remaining weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Market Opened: Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ET
Volume
$23,648End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s long tenure since 2009, prior service as Virginia governor, and strong fundraising position have anchored trader consensus around his reelection. Virginia has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and nonpartisan forecasters across outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who prevailed in the August primary, has struggled to gain statewide traction in a state with a Democratic lean. The implied probability reflected in current pricing could shift only with major late-cycle developments such as a significant health event, unforeseen scandal, or abrupt national political realignment within the remaining weeks before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The candidates may be named in the contract for the convenience of traders. In the event that any named candidate is replaced as the nominee of their respective party prior to election day, the name in the contract will be updated and the market will resolve based on the replacement nominee of the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
Volume
$23,648End Date
Nov 3, 2026Market Opened
Oct 13, 2025, 4:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democratic Senator Mark Warner’s long tenure since 2009, prior service as Virginia governor, and strong fundraising position have anchored trader consensus around his reelection. Virginia has not sent a Republican to the Senate since 2002, and nonpartisan forecasters across outlets such as the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify the contest as safe or solid Democratic ahead of the November 3 general election. Republican nominee Bert Mizusawa, a retired Army major general who prevailed in the August primary, has struggled to gain statewide traction in a state with a Democratic lean. The implied probability reflected in current pricing could shift only with major late-cycle developments such as a significant health event, unforeseen scandal, or abrupt national political realignment within the remaining weeks before Election Day.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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