Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Delcy Rodríguez at 63.5% to serve as Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, reflecting expectations of Chavismo regime continuity through internal succession rather than Nicolás Maduro's continued tenure, priced at just 12.8%. Maduro's January 10, 2025, inauguration amid disputed 2024 election results and international non-recognition solidified short-term control, but persistent economic collapse, hyperinflation, mass emigration, and U.S. sanctions fuel doubts about his endurance through the term nominally extending to 2031. Opposition leaders María Corina Machado (12%) and exiled Edmundo González (1.1%) trail due to government suppression, disqualifications, and lack of near-term electoral path, with no snap election or no-confidence mechanisms scheduled. Potential catalysts include diplomatic shifts under the incoming Trump administration or internal power struggles among figures like Diosdado Cabello.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 64%
Nicolás Maduro 13.0%
María Corina Machado 12%
Edmundo González 1.1%
$77,305,225 Vol.
$77,305,225 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
64%
Nicolás Maduro
13%
María Corina Machado
12%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
No Head of State
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 64%
Nicolás Maduro 13.0%
María Corina Machado 12%
Edmundo González 1.1%
$77,305,225 Vol.
$77,305,225 Vol.
Delcy Rodríguez
64%
Nicolás Maduro
13%
María Corina Machado
12%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Donald Trump
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
No Head of State
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors Delcy Rodríguez at 63.5% to serve as Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, reflecting expectations of Chavismo regime continuity through internal succession rather than Nicolás Maduro's continued tenure, priced at just 12.8%. Maduro's January 10, 2025, inauguration amid disputed 2024 election results and international non-recognition solidified short-term control, but persistent economic collapse, hyperinflation, mass emigration, and U.S. sanctions fuel doubts about his endurance through the term nominally extending to 2031. Opposition leaders María Corina Machado (12%) and exiled Edmundo González (1.1%) trail due to government suppression, disqualifications, and lack of near-term electoral path, with no snap election or no-confidence mechanisms scheduled. Potential catalysts include diplomatic shifts under the incoming Trump administration or internal power struggles among figures like Diosdado Cabello.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated



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