Trader consensus positions Delcy Rodríguez as the frontrunner to serve as Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by chavismo's entrenched control through PSUV institutions, military loyalty, and institutional dominance following Nicolás Maduro's January 10 inauguration for his disputed 2025-2031 term amid limited international recognition. Maduro's lower 15.6% odds reflect trader expectations of potential internal succession due to persistent economic crisis, renewed U.S. sanctions under the incoming Trump administration, and health speculation, while opposition leaders like María Corina Machado (12%) and exiled Edmundo González (1.3%) face severe repression and electoral bans. Recent affirmations of armed forces allegiance to the regime and crackdowns on protests have solidified continuity prospects, elevating Rodríguez's standing as vice president and key PSUV figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · UpdatedVenezuela leader end of 2026?
Venezuela leader end of 2026?
Delcy Rodríguez 66%
Nicolás Maduro 15.6%
María Corina Machado 12%
Edmundo González 1.4%
$77,418,965 Vol.
$77,418,965 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
66%
Nicolás Maduro
16%
María Corina Machado
12%
Edmundo González
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
1%
Donald Trump
1%
No Head of State
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
1%
Marco Rubio
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
<1%
Pete Hegseth
<1%
Frank Donovan
<1%
Evan Pettus
<1%
Dan Caine
<1%
Richard Grenell
<1%
Delcy Rodríguez 66%
Nicolás Maduro 15.6%
María Corina Machado 12%
Edmundo González 1.4%
$77,418,965 Vol.
$77,418,965 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
Delcy Rodríguez
$1,249,894 Vol.
66%
Nicolás Maduro
$876,263 Vol.
16%
María Corina Machado
$837,101 Vol.
12%
Edmundo González
$416,847 Vol.
1%
Diosdado Cabello Rondón
$1,238,878 Vol.
1%
Donald Trump
$686,636 Vol.
1%
No Head of State
$738,958 Vol.
1%
Vladimir Padrino López
$0 Vol.
1%
Jorge Rodríguez
$862,848 Vol.
1%
Marco Rubio
$651,580 Vol.
<1%
Dinorah Figuera
$2,057,585 Vol.
<1%
Pete Hegseth
$8,136,881 Vol.
<1%
Frank Donovan
$24,625,435 Vol.
<1%
Evan Pettus
$2,733,742 Vol.
<1%
Dan Caine
$1,952,538 Vol.
<1%
Richard Grenell
$30,353,778 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus positions Delcy Rodríguez as the frontrunner to serve as Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by chavismo's entrenched control through PSUV institutions, military loyalty, and institutional dominance following Nicolás Maduro's January 10 inauguration for his disputed 2025-2031 term amid limited international recognition. Maduro's lower 15.6% odds reflect trader expectations of potential internal succession due to persistent economic crisis, renewed U.S. sanctions under the incoming Trump administration, and health speculation, while opposition leaders like María Corina Machado (12%) and exiled Edmundo González (1.3%) face severe repression and electoral bans. Recent affirmations of armed forces allegiance to the regime and crackdowns on protests have solidified continuity prospects, elevating Rodríguez's standing as vice president and key PSUV figure.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Market Opened: Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ET
Volume
$77,418,965End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Trader consensus positions Delcy Rodríguez as the frontrunner to serve as Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by chavismo's entrenched control through PSUV institutions, military loyalty, and institutional dominance following Nicolás Maduro's January 10 inauguration for his disputed 2025-2031 term amid limited international recognition. Maduro's lower 15.6% odds reflect trader expectations of potential internal succession due to persistent economic crisis, renewed U.S. sanctions under the incoming Trump administration, and health speculation, while opposition leaders like María Corina Machado (12%) and exiled Edmundo González (1.3%) face severe repression and electoral bans. Recent affirmations of armed forces allegiance to the regime and crackdowns on protests have solidified continuity prospects, elevating Rodríguez's standing as vice president and key PSUV figure.
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela.
If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa.
In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position.
If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”.
The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself.
The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Volume
$77,418,965End Date
Dec 31, 2026Market Opened
Jan 4, 2026, 1:09 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus positions Delcy Rodríguez as the frontrunner to serve as Venezuela's head of state by December 31, 2026, at 65.5% implied probability, driven by chavismo's entrenched control through PSUV institutions, military loyalty, and institutional dominance following Nicolás Maduro's January 10 inauguration for his disputed 2025-2031 term amid limited international recognition. Maduro's lower 15.6% odds reflect trader expectations of potential internal succession due to persistent economic crisis, renewed U.S. sanctions under the incoming Trump administration, and health speculation, while opposition leaders like María Corina Machado (12%) and exiled Edmundo González (1.3%) face severe repression and electoral bans. Recent affirmations of armed forces allegiance to the regime and crackdowns on protests have solidified continuity prospects, elevating Rodríguez's standing as vice president and key PSUV figure.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
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