Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

Market icon

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

$294,453 Vol.

>99% chance

Rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 22, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an U.S. missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$294,453
End Date
Dec 31, 2024
Created At
Oct 23, 2024, 4:05 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.

Note on Middle East Markets: The promise of prediction markets is to harness the wisdom of the crowd to create accurate, unbiased forecasts for the most important events to society. That ability is particularly invaluable in gut-wrenching times like today. After discussing with those directly affected by the attacks, who had dozens of questions, we realized that prediction markets could give them the answers they needed in ways TV news and 𝕏 could not.

Note: As with all markets currently displayed on Polymarket, there are no fees on this market.

$294,453 Vol.

Market icon

U.S. military action against Yemen in 2024?

>99% chance

About

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States initiates a military action on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory between October 22, 2024, and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, a "military action" will be considered to be any use of force executed by the U.S. on Yemeni soil, airspace, or maritime territory (e.g. if a weapons depot on Yemeni soil is subject to an U.S. missile strike, this market will resolve to "Yes") that is officially acknowledged by the U.S. government or a consensus of credible reporting. This includes, but is not limited to, airstrikes, naval attacks, or ground invasions. Cyber attacks, sanctions, or diplomatic actions will not count towards the resolution of this market.

In the case that the "Yes" resolution criteria are met prior to this market's resolution date, this market will resolve immediately.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$294,453
End Date
Dec 31, 2024
Created At
Oct 23, 2024, 4:05 PM UTC

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

shield

Beware of external links.