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Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?

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Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$248,754 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$248,754 Vol.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between October 9, and November 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve once the next datapoint after a flip occurs becomes available, or otherwise once finalized figures are available for every date within this market's range.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.
Volume
$248,754
End Date
Nov 4, 2024
Created At
Oct 11, 2024, 12:06 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between October 9, and November 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the next datapoint after a flip occurs becomes available, or otherwise once finalized figures are available for every date within this market's range. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between October 9, and November 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve once the next datapoint after a flip occurs becomes available, or otherwise once finalized figures are available for every date within this market's range.

The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.
Volume
$248,754
End Date
Nov 4, 2024
Created At
Oct 11, 2024, 12:06 PM ET
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump is more likely to win the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election than Kamala Harris according to the FiveThirtyEight election forecast on any date between October 9, and November 4, 2024. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve once the next datapoint after a flip occurs becomes available, or otherwise once finalized figures are available for every date within this market's range. The resolution source will be FiveThirtyEight's 2024 presidential election forecast, https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/, specifically the numbers indicated by the blue and red trend lines under "Win probability". The resolution refers to the odds of each candidate winning as a number out of 100 reported to the 1 digit mark (eg. "Trump 57 times out of 100"). The listed number of simulations out of 1,000 won by each candidate will NOT be considered. Changes in the methodology by which FiveThirtyEight calculates its figures will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. Note: Ties will not qualify as a flip. The model must show Trump with a greater probability of winning the electoral college than Harris.

Outcome proposed: Yes

Disputed

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?" has generated $248.8K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 11, 2024. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "Trump flips Kamala on 538 before election?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.