Name: "The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)
Start: 2025-10-01T18:59:42.315964Z
End: 2025-10-06T00:00:00Z

Use the internal polymarket geolocation service.

poly_geo

Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

funkit_deposit

funkit_withdraw

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

This market will resolve according to the Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer “All Critics” Tomatometer score for "The Smashing Machine" (2025) as of October 6, 2025, at 10:00 AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If, for any reason, the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked until the actual data is available.

75-76

73-74

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

This market will resolve according to the Rotten Tomatoes’ Tomatometer “All Critics” Tomatometer score for "The Witcher: Season 4" (2025) as of December 31, 2025 at 10:00AM ET.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If for any reason the resolution data is unavailable, the resolution source will be checked every 6 hours, until the actual data is available.

"The Witcher: Season 4" Rotten Tomatoes score is between 45 and 59?

This market will resolve to the movie with the second highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve to the movie with the third highest 2025 gross once data for December 31 is made available.

Data from the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2025/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses will be used to resolve this market.

Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2025 - dates outside of 2025 will not count toward this movie's gross.

In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner.

If there is no final data available by January 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.

Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?

This market will resolve according to the Metascore listed on Metacritic for "Call of Duty: Black Ops 7" (https://www.metacritic.com/game/call-of-duty-black-ops-7/) as of seven days after the release, at 11:59 PM ET.

For games released on multiple platforms, Metacritic displays a default Metascore, that being the Metascore for the game on the platform for which it has the most critical reviews. For the purposes of this market, the Metascore refers to that of the default platform as of seven days after the release at 10 AM ET.

For the purposes of this market, "release" refers to the game becoming publicly available for purchase or download in the US. Early access, beta versions, other forms of pre-release availability, or leaks will not count as an official release. If the release is only for certain consoles (e.g. Xbox Series X/S) it will count.

If this game is not released by December 31, 2026, the market will resolve to the lowest bracket.


Will "Call of Duty: Black Ops 7" have a Metascore between 75 and 85?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed movie is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture. If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2025 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2025, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will One Battle After Another be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if GPT-5 achieves a score of 70% or greater on the FrontierMath Exam by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the Epoch AI’s Frontier Math benchmarking leaderboard (https://epoch.ai/frontiermath) for Tier 1-3. Studies which are not included in the leaderboard (e.g. https://x.com/EpochAIResearch/status/1945905796904005720) will not be considered.

The primary resolution source will be information from EpochAI; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. 

GPT-5 scores ≥ 70% on FrontierMath Benchmark by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the movie ranked #1 in Google’s official Year in Search list for 2025, published on Google’s Year in Search hub.

The authoritative location is trends.withgoogle.com/year-in-search (navigate: Global → Entertainment → Movies), where the 2025 page will appear once released (as the 2024 page currently shows the Global “Movies” ranking).

If a search term clearly refers to the term listed by Google (for example, abbreviations, alternate spellings, or closely related phrasing), it will count toward that listed term.

This market may resolve as soon as the official 2025 data is released for the specified timeframe. If none of the listed options is ranked #1 in the respective list or if Google does not release the 2025 Year in Search by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will KPop Demon Hunters be the #1 searched movie on Google this year?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Picture. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Picture when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will One Battle After Another win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for The J. M. Smucker (SJM) after the next earnings figures are released is higher than the official NYSE closing price for SJM prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for The J. M. Smucker (SJM) after the next earnings figures are released is lower than the official NYSE closing price for SJM prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing at which the company’s earnings figures are first publicly released, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SJM does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for SJM.

The J. M. Smucker (SJM) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official Nasdaq closing price for Semtech (SMTC) after the next earnings figures are released is higher than the official Nasdaq closing price for SMTC prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official Nasdaq closing price for Semtech (SMTC) after the next earnings figures are released is lower than the official Nasdaq closing price for SMTC prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing at which the company’s earnings figures are first publicly released, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If SMTC does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by Nasdaq for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is Nasdaq Historical Quotes page (nasdaq.com), specifically the Close values for SMTC.

Semtech (SMTC) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States falls below 6.00% at any point between September 2 and December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, there is no data point for this market's resolution date on either of the sources listed below, information for the nearest previously available date will be used.

The primary resolution source for this market is Freddie Mac, specifically https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms. The data that will be looked at is the "30Y FRM" as indicated on the graph titled "Primary Mortgage Market Survey®". If the resolution source is unavailable, https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US will be looked at instead. If both sources are unavailable, other credible reporting may be used.

30-year mortgage rate below 6% by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of views by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast).

Will MrBeast hit 102.5 billion views by December 31? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.


Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2025?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will One Battle After Another win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if David Portnoy rates any pizza at a 9.0 or higher on any One Bite Pizza Review published between May 15 and December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Portnoy's official One Bite Pizza Reviews YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@OneBitePizzaReviews).

Will Portnoy give another 9+ review in 2025?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. If a actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Timothée Chalamet be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between May 28, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.

The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2026, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.

5kt meteor strike in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the listed entity which is the first to reach an Arena Score of 1500+ on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/ with the style control unchecked will be used to resolve this market.

If no company's model reaches 1500 Arena Score by the specified time, this market will resolve to "None by June 30".

If the first model to reach a 1500+ Arena Score belongs to any company other than the listed ones, this market will be resolved to "Other".

The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, the market will remain open until it is accessible again. If it becomes permanently unavailable, resolution will be based on another credible source.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1500 on Chatbot Arena by June 30 2026?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Film Editing. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Film Editing when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will One Battle After Another win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits the specified number of subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 460 Million subscribers by December 31?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Original Screenplay when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to “Up” if the first official NYSE closing price for Williams-Sonoma (WSM) after the next earnings figures are released is higher than the official NYSE closing price for WSM prior to the earnings release.

This market will resolve to “Down” if the official NYSE closing price for Williams-Sonoma (WSM) after the next earnings figures are released is lower than the official NYSE closing price for WSM prior to the earnings release.

This market resolves based on the exact timing at which the company’s earnings figures are first publicly released, regardless of whether they appear in a press release, earnings call, SEC filing, or similar. If the earnings figures are released before the close of regular trading hours, the same day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price. If the numbers are released after the market has closed, the following day’s closing price will be compared to the most recent prior closing price.

The ‘most recent prior closing price’ always refers to the latest regular session close preceding the earnings release. Only official closing prices from regular trading days will be used.

If the two specified closing prices are exactly equal, this market will resolve 50-50. Note that all figures will be rounded to the nearest cent using standard rounding.

If WSM does not trade at all during the specified regular session, or if the company does not release earnings within 60 calendar days of this market's creation, this market will resolve 50-50.

If either of the relevant days are shortened (for example, due to a market holiday schedule), the official closing price published by NYSE for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution source for this market is NYSE Historic Prices page (nyse.com), specifically the Close values for WSM.

Williams-Sonoma (WSM) Up or Down After Earnings?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the TSA reports a daily checkpoint throughput of more than 3,100,000 for any date between November 23, 2025, and November 30, 2025 (inclusive). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for all dates within the listed range or on any date before that if the target number is reached within the market timeframe. Any revisions published to data for dates November 23, 2025, and onward, prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range, will be considered.

If the target number has not been reached and if data is not available for any of the dates from November 23, 2025, to November 30, 2025, by December 31, 2025, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughput as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.

>3.1 million TSA travelers any day November 23-30?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed actor is nominated for the 98th Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor. If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

If, for any reason, no nominations are declared by March 15, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Sean Penn be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any YouTube video posted by MrBeast gets over 100 million views in the first 7 days after being posted between September 25 and November 30, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If MrBeast does not post a YouTube video by November 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Videos posted within the final 7 days of this market's resolution date will qualify, and this market will remain open to allow for the full 7 days to be completed.

The resolution source for this market is MrBeast's YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast), specifically the 'views' counter for the described video.

Note: This market refers to MrBeast’s posted YouTube videos. Shorts, previews, or other videos released other than the referenced videos will not be considered.

Will another MrBeast video get 100m+ week 1 views by November 30?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed movie that wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Cinematography. 

If a film is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Cinematography when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated film whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) hits 500 million subscribers by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.  Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be the MrBeast YouTube channel (https://www.youtube.com/@MrBeast) or a consensus of credible reporting.

Will MrBeast hit 500 Million subscribers by Dec 31?

The Academy Awards are presented annually by the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS) to honor outstanding artistic and technical achievements in film. For the 98th Academy Awards in 2026, nominations are scheduled to be announced on January 22, followed by the ceremony on March 15, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the listed actor who wins the 98th Academy Award for Best Actor. 

If an actor is not officially nominated for the Academy Award for Best Actor when the 2026 nominees are announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".

In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated actor whose listed last name comes first in alphabetical order.

If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET,  this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Academy Awards and AMPAS, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.oscars.org/) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Timothée Chalamet win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

Netflix is expected to update its global Top 10 TV movies list on top10.netflix.com on Tuesday, November 25, 2025, 3:00 PM ET, reflecting viewership from the previous week (Monday to Sunday).

This market will resolve based on which movie this update ranks as the #1 global Netflix movie.

The ranking is based on total views globally, as reported by Netflix for Global Top 10 Movies (English only).

If the top10.netflix.com update does not occur by November 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

Will "Frankenstein" be the top global Netflix movie this week? (November 25 2025)

This polymarket will resolve according to the player who wins the 2026 Masters Tournament.

If this player is eliminated from contention for The Masters based on the official rules of the tournament, the relevant market will resolve to "No".

In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by The Masters official tournament rules.

If no winner is announced by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution sources will be the official results published by the PGA TOUR website and The Masters website. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

<73
$298 Vol.
No

73-74
$229 Vol.
Yes

75-76
$74 Vol.
No

77+
$25 Vol.
No

Market Context

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

Rules

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

Market Context

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

About

Related

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

<73$298 Vol.Nocircle xmark

73-74$229 Vol.Yescircle check

75-76$74 Vol.Nocircle xmark

77+$25 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

Rules

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

Market Context

"The Smashing Machine" Rotten Tomatoes score? (Lower brackets)

About

Related

<73
$298 Vol.
No

73-74
$229 Vol.
Yes

75-76
$74 Vol.
No

77+
$25 Vol.
No