Strava's confidential S-1 filing in January 2026, confirmed officially in February, anchors trader consensus on a 2B–3B closing market cap at 43.5% implied probability, aligning closely with its $2.2B private valuation from a May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. Robust user growth to 180 million registered accounts and $415 million in 2025 revenue—up 18.5% year-over-year—via premium subscriptions fuel optimism amid Gen Z's run club surge and social fitness engagement, though modest multiples reflect competitive pressures from apps like MyFitnessPal. Early resolution of the Garmin API dispute in October 2025 mitigates risks, with 3B–4B (19%) and 4B–5B (15.5%) gaining on profitability trajectory; public S-1 disclosure and roadshow remain key catalysts in the open IPO window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated2B–3B 44%
3B–4B 19%
4B–5B 9%
<2B 9%
$85,015 Vol.
$85,015 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<2B
9%
2B–3B
44%
3B–4B
19%
4B–5B
15%
5B–7B
5%
7B–10B
4%
10B–15B
5%
15B+
1%
No IPO before 2028
7%
2B–3B 44%
3B–4B 19%
4B–5B 9%
<2B 9%
$85,015 Vol.
$85,015 Vol.
Dec 31, 2027
<2B
$764 Vol.
9%
2B–3B
$53,773 Vol.
44%
3B–4B
$24,867 Vol.
19%
4B–5B
$928 Vol.
15%
5B–7B
$799 Vol.
5%
7B–10B
$821 Vol.
4%
10B–15B
$1,499 Vol.
5%
15B+
$1,066 Vol.
1%
No IPO before 2028
$500 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Strava's confidential S-1 filing in January 2026, confirmed officially in February, anchors trader consensus on a 2B–3B closing market cap at 43.5% implied probability, aligning closely with its $2.2B private valuation from a May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. Robust user growth to 180 million registered accounts and $415 million in 2025 revenue—up 18.5% year-over-year—via premium subscriptions fuel optimism amid Gen Z's run club surge and social fitness engagement, though modest multiples reflect competitive pressures from apps like MyFitnessPal. Early resolution of the Garmin API dispute in October 2025 mitigates risks, with 3B–4B (19%) and 4B–5B (15.5%) gaining on profitability trajectory; public S-1 disclosure and roadshow remain key catalysts in the open IPO window.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Market Opened: Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ET
Volume
$85,015End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.Strava's confidential S-1 filing in January 2026, confirmed officially in February, anchors trader consensus on a 2B–3B closing market cap at 43.5% implied probability, aligning closely with its $2.2B private valuation from a May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. Robust user growth to 180 million registered accounts and $415 million in 2025 revenue—up 18.5% year-over-year—via premium subscriptions fuel optimism amid Gen Z's run club surge and social fitness engagement, though modest multiples reflect competitive pressures from apps like MyFitnessPal. Early resolution of the Garmin API dispute in October 2025 mitigates risks, with 3B–4B (19%) and 4B–5B (15.5%) gaining on profitability trajectory; public S-1 disclosure and roadshow remain key catalysts in the open IPO window.
This market will resolve based on Strava's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
If no Strava IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on Strava’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Volume
$85,015End Date
Dec 31, 2027Market Opened
Jan 14, 2026, 5:30 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Strava's confidential S-1 filing in January 2026, confirmed officially in February, anchors trader consensus on a 2B–3B closing market cap at 43.5% implied probability, aligning closely with its $2.2B private valuation from a May 2025 funding round led by Sequoia Capital. Robust user growth to 180 million registered accounts and $415 million in 2025 revenue—up 18.5% year-over-year—via premium subscriptions fuel optimism amid Gen Z's run club surge and social fitness engagement, though modest multiples reflect competitive pressures from apps like MyFitnessPal. Early resolution of the Garmin API dispute in October 2025 mitigates risks, with 3B–4B (19%) and 4B–5B (15.5%) gaining on profitability trajectory; public S-1 disclosure and roadshow remain key catalysts in the open IPO window.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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