Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10
Start: 2025-06-02T21:34:19.592906Z
End: 2025-08-31T00:00:00Z

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This is a market on the outcome of the SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10.

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 15, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 15

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 31

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by July 20, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

July 20

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 1, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 1 

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by June 30, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

June 30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the tenth Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the tenth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the tenth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the tenth launch, and this market will stay open until the tenth launch has occurred. If the tenth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by July 10, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

July 10

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the tenth Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

If the tenth launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Super Heavy booster explodes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the tenth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market pertains to the tenth Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the tenth Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the tenth launch, and this market will stay open until the tenth launch has occurred. If the tenth launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Successful splash down?

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 22, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 22

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 24, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 24

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 26, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 26

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 25, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 25

If the 10th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by August 27, 2025 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

August 27

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

This market will resolve according to the public ticker symbol used by SpaceX in an IPO (Initial Public Offering) by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.

An official announcement from SpaceX that they will IPO under a specific ticker symbol will be sufficient to resolve this market.

If a ticker used by SpaceX in a qualifying IPO is a variant of a ticker symbol listed in this market group with additional letters to denote a specific class of shares, it will be considered to be that ticker (e.g. if SpaceX uses a ticker symbol of $MARS.A or $MARSA, this market will resolve to $MARS).

If SpaceX announces an IPO with multiple tickers that are not considered the same ticker under the previous rule (i.e. $MARS.A and $MARS.B would be considered the same ticker), this market will remain open until SpaceX’s first day of public trading and will resolve according to the ticker symbolizing the security class with the greatest market capitalization. Market capitalization is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day. If this also results in a tie, this market will resolve according to the ticker symbol that comes first in alphabetical order.

If SpaceX IPOs with a non-listed ticker, or does not IPO or officially announce an IPO and ticker symbol by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceX and the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

Note: In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will use the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will use the closing price on the next trading day for which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.

Will SpaceX's public ticker be $SPAX?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceX has between 160 (inclusive) and 179 (inclusive) launches in 2025. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No."

The resolution source is the FAA, specifically the number shown next to SpaceX when 2025 is selected here https://www.faa.gov/data_research/commercial_space_data.

Will SpaceX have between 160-179 launches in 2025?

If Rocket Lab’s Neutron rocket successfully launches from its launch pad by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Rocket Lab (https://www.youtube.com/@RocketLabCorp), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., explosion or failed ascent) after the initial liftoff will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change or rebranding of the Neutron vehicle will have no bearing on the market’s resolution.

Rocket Lab’s Neutron Rocket Launch by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the official closing price for SpaceX’s market capitalization on its first trading day is above the value specified in the title. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No”.

If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.

Market capitalization is defined as the total number of outstanding shares multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.

Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.

In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on SpaceX’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading.

SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if New Glenn Flight 3 (NG-3) successfully launches from its launch pad by the specified date, 11:59PM ET.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by Blue Origin (https://www.youtube.com/@blueorigin/streams), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of New Glenn with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Will New Glenn Flight 3 launch by January 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Tesla publicly releases an unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability that satisfies all of the following criteria by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

1. Tesla (or Elon Musk) must label the feature “Full Self-Driving” or use an equivalent name indicating no requirement for human intervention.

2. The system must operate on public roads without a human driver present or required to oversee its performance. In practice, this means either:
- The vehicle runs with no one in the driver’s seat, or
- The vehicle operates in a mode where no occupant is expected to monitor or intervene.

3. Tesla or any Tesla-affiliated entity must make the unsupervised Full Self-Driving capability broadly accessible either through a robo-taxi or ride-hailing service open to the public, or inclusion as a standard or optional feature on newly sold Tesla vehicles, or a software update that enables unsupervised operation in current vehicles.

Any mode that requires a licensed driver to be seated in the vehicle, or for a human (on-site or remote) to continuously supervise the driving performance or remain ready to intervene at any moment, will not qualify. However, remote monitoring that does not involve continuous supervision or expectation of real-time intervention—for example, oversight limited to emergency response—will not disqualify the service.

This market’s resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by June 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if evidence is made public confirming that Elon Musk has visited visited Little Saint James by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes but is not limited to flight logs, photographs, videos, court records, or sworn testimony that clearly place Elon Musk on the island.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Evidence Elon Musk went to Epstein's Island made public in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Grok has a native macOS desktop application publicly available for download
- OpenAI publicly releases a standalone web browser
- Apple releases a new AirTag product
- Google's Gemini 3.0 model is made available to the general public
- Grokipedia is made available to the general public

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

Qualifying releases during this market's timeframe will count, regardless of any subsequent reversal, rollback, or withdrawal of access.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Tech.pdf 

Tech Release Parlay

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Any model owned by Google has the highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on January 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
- Google Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- Gemini 3 scores at least 40% on FrontierMath Benchmark

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Google+Gemini+Parlay.pdf

Google Gemini Parlay

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Casey Armitage be the Republican Nominee for MI-10?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the MI-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Republican Party win the MI-10 House seat?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) ceases operations entirely, including the termination of all federal programs and activities managed by the agency, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If NASA is merged with another agency, resulting in a consolidated department with a shared administrative structure which is no longer titled the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, it will count as a "Yes" resolution.

If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g. he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump end NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the Human trader with the highest Total PnL at the end of the Aster Human vs AI trading competition. The resolution source will be the Human leaderboard on https://www.asterdex.com/en/campaigns/human-vs-ai, viewable under the Human tab.

If two or more participants are tied for the highest Total PnL at the time of resolution, the market will resolve to the participant whose display name appears first in the ordering used on the official Aster Human leaderboard.

If the competition is not completed or the official leaderboard is unavailable, the market will remain open until reliable data is published by Aster. If no such data becomes available by December 31, 2025 ET, the market will resolve to “Other”.

Will Tippy win the Aster trading competition?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- US confirms that aliens exist
- Conclusive proof becomes public that the Earth is flat
- Trump says the Moon Landing was faked

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Conspiracy+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Conspiracy Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the NY-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on June 23, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Brad Lander be the Democratic nominee for NY-10?

This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the VA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will the Democratic Party win the VA-10 House seat?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Spark officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Spark (https://x.com/spark), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Spark launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any executive order by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that aims to eliminate or dismantle the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be the Federal Register (https://www.federalregister.gov/presidential-documents/executive-orders), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump executive order ending NASA in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Monad launches a token
- MetaMask launches a token
- Lighter launches a token
- Opensea launches a token
- Meteora launches a token

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the above-specified projects do not launch a token during this market’s above-specified time frame.

For a qualifying launch, the token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the respective projects; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Token Launch Party Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Google Gemini 3 model with a score of at least the specified score by the specified January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

June 30
$23,112 Vol.
No

July 10
$30,256 Vol.
No

July 20
$5,608 Vol.
No

August 1
$6,004 Vol.
No

August 15
$22,377 Vol.
No

August 22
$10,575 Vol.
No

August 24
$32,617 Vol.
No

August 25
$21,704 Vol.
No

August 26
$32,300 Vol.
Yes

August 27
$4,483 Vol.
Yes

August 31
$94,282 Vol.
Yes

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$177,304 Vol.
No

Super Heavy booster explodes?
$146,298 Vol.
Yes

Successful splash down?
$169,421 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

About

Related

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

June 30$23,112 Vol.Nocircle xmark

July 10$30,256 Vol.Nocircle xmark

July 20$5,608 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 1 $6,004 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 15$22,377 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 22$10,575 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 24$32,617 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 25$21,704 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August 26$32,300 Vol.Yescircle check

August 27$4,483 Vol.Yescircle check

August 31$94,282 Vol.Yescircle check

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?$177,304 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Super Heavy booster explodes?$146,298 Vol.Yescircle check

Successful splash down?$169,421 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

Rules

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

Market Context

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 10

About

Related

June 30
$23,112 Vol.
No

July 10
$30,256 Vol.
No

July 20
$5,608 Vol.
No

August 1
$6,004 Vol.
No

August 15
$22,377 Vol.
No

August 22
$10,575 Vol.
No

August 24
$32,617 Vol.
No

August 25
$21,704 Vol.
No

August 26
$32,300 Vol.
Yes

August 27
$4,483 Vol.
Yes

August 31
$94,282 Vol.
Yes

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy booster?
$177,304 Vol.
No

Super Heavy booster explodes?
$146,298 Vol.
Yes

Successful splash down?
$169,421 Vol.
Yes