Name: SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7
Start: 2025-01-03T21:33:02.754668Z
End: 2025-01-16T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the outcomes and milestones of SpaceX's Flight Test 7.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight successfully reaches an altitude of 62 miles above sea level. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the vehicle reaches 62 miles will have no bearing on the outcome.

This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch - if the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh StarShip launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred - if the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET this market will resolve to "No".

The outcome will be corroborated by examining SpaceX’s official video feed of the launch (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds or written reports if necessary.


Reaches space?

If the 7th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad by January 31, 2025, ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launch before February?

If any SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between January 1, 2025, and January 10, 2025, 11:59 PM CST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Launch by Jan 10?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test is successfully caught by the chopsticks on the Orbital Launch Tower during it's landing attempt. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A successful catch is defined as the chopsticks capturing and supporting the booster without it falling to the ground or causing catastrophic damage during the landing process.

This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.


Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Starship upper stage for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight achieves a controlled splashdown in the ocean. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

A splashdown will be considered controlled if the Starship upper stage successfully re-enters Earth's atmosphere, remains intact during descent, and enters the water without breaking apart or exploding upon impact. 

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.


Successful splash down?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald attends the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test launch, currently scheduled to take place in mid January. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the event is canceled or postponed beyond January 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Attending the test is defined as being in physical attendance within proximity of the launch (e.g. Trump attending the 6th launch would count https://www.cnbc.com/2024/11/19/trump-attendings-spacex-launch-elon-musk-starship-.html). 

This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch attempt. This market will resolve based on any attempted test regardless of if the rocket lifts off the pad.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Trump attends launch?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count).

If the seventh launch does not occur by December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Note: The sixth Starship-SuperHeavy test flight which exploded after executing controlled splashdown in the Gulf of Mexico would qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Super Heavy explodes?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the booster for the seventh Starship-SuperHeavy test flight re-enters the Earth's atmosphere without experiencing a rapid unscheduled disassembly (RUD). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market pertains to the seventh Starship launch. If the rocket lifts off the pad, it will be considered the seventh Starship launch, and this market will resolve based on it. If the rocket does not lift off the pad, it will not be considered the seventh launch, and this market will stay open until the seventh launch has occurred. If the seventh launch has not occurred by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No."

If it is unclear and/or cannot be determined whether the booster experienced RUD before or after re-entry, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.


Super Heavy survives re-entry?

If any SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launchpad between January 1, 2025, and January 15, 2025, 11:59 PM CST, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.

Any subsequent anomaly (e.g. an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

SpaceX Starship Flight Test 7

Chopsticks catch Super Heavy?
$430,029 Vol.
Yes

Super Heavy explodes?
$130,192 Vol.
No

Reaches space?
$91,044 Vol.
Yes

Successful splash down?
$56,507 Vol.
No

Super Heavy survives re-entry?
$51,819 Vol.
Yes

Trump attends launch?
$80,873 Vol.
No

Launch by Jan 10?
$127,692 Vol.
No

Launch by Jan 15?
$50,103 Vol.
No

Launch before February?
$304,785 Vol.
Yes

Market Context