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Economy·Indicies

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

Market icon
Economy·Indicies

Q1 S&P 500 Performance

<0% 99.5%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$349,942 Vol.

<0% 99.5%

2-3% <1%

4-5% <1%

8-10% <1%

Polymarket

$349,942 Vol.

<0%

$41,309 Vol.

100%

0-2%

$14,888 Vol.

<1%

2-3%

$19,287 Vol.

<1%

3-4%

$43,303 Vol.

<1%

4-5%

$66,967 Vol.

<1%

5-6%

$46,183 Vol.

<1%

6-8%

$59,000 Vol.

<1%

8-10%

$34,678 Vol.

<1%

10%+

$24,325 Vol.

<1%

This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by surging oil prices from escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in the Middle East, which has fueled inflation fears and triggered a four-week losing streak. The index closed March 27 at 6,369, down approximately 7% year-to-date from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, exacerbated by February's unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls showing a 92,000 job loss and unemployment rising to 4.4%. With resolution imminent by March 31, only a dramatic de-escalation or surprise economic rebound could challenge this positioning, though downside momentum dominates skin-in-the-game sentiment.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by surging oil prices from escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in the Middle East, which has fueled inflation fears and triggered a four-week losing streak. The index closed March 27 at 6,369, down approximately 7% year-to-date from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, exacerbated by February's unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls showing a 92,000 job loss and unemployment rising to 4.4%. With resolution imminent by March 31, only a dramatic de-escalation or surprise economic rebound could challenge this positioning, though downside momentum dominates skin-in-the-game sentiment.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 (January 1 - March 31). The percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the specified quarter will be calculated by comparing the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the quarter to the official closing price for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) for the final trading day of the previous quarter, as reported by the Wall Street Journal. The closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter will be subtracted from the closing price for the final trading day of the specified quarter, and then that difference will be divided by the closing price for the final trading day of the previous quarter. Percentage changes will be rounded to two decimal places away from zero (e.g. a percentage change of 4.995% would be considered 5.00%, and a percentage change of 4.993% would be considered 4.99%) If any relevant trading day is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no official closing price is published for a relevant trading day (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, or other disruption), this market will use the most recent official price published by the specified resolution source as the effective closing price. If the percentage change in the S&P 500 Index (SPX) in the first quarter of 2026 falls exactly between two listed brackets, this market will resolve to the higher bracket. The resolution source for this market will be the Wall Street Journal, specifically the daily CLOSE prices for the S&P 500 Index (SPX) published on the S&P 500 Index (SPX) historical prices page (https://www.wsj.com/market-data/quotes/index/SPX/historical-prices).Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by surging oil prices from escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in the Middle East, which has fueled inflation fears and triggered a four-week losing streak. The index closed March 27 at 6,369, down approximately 7% year-to-date from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, exacerbated by February's unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls showing a 92,000 job loss and unemployment rising to 4.4%. With resolution imminent by March 31, only a dramatic de-escalation or surprise economic rebound could challenge this positioning, though downside momentum dominates skin-in-the-game sentiment.

Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 99.5% implied probability of negative Q1 S&P 500 performance, driven by surging oil prices from escalating U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran in the Middle East, which has fueled inflation fears and triggered a four-week losing streak. The index closed March 27 at 6,369, down approximately 7% year-to-date from its December 31, 2025 level of 6,846, exacerbated by February's unexpectedly weak nonfarm payrolls showing a 92,000 job loss and unemployment rising to 4.4%. With resolution imminent by March 31, only a dramatic de-escalation or surprise economic rebound could challenge this positioning, though downside momentum dominates skin-in-the-game sentiment.

Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data · Updated

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Q1 S&P 500 Performance" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "<0%" at 100%, followed by "0-2%" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" has generated $349.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 14, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Q1 S&P 500 Performance," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" is "<0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "0-2%" at 0%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Q1 S&P 500 Performance" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.